Warm & Windy, Chance Of Storms


Monday, October 3rd 2016, 8:48 pm
By: News On 6


Unfortunately, after that taste of Fall weather last week, much of this week is going to seem more like Summer has returned.  Gusty southerly winds will bring more moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico so the dew points will be rising back into the 60s and perhaps even to near 70 by Wed/Thu.  At the same time, we will have enough sunshine for daytime highs to reach into the upper 80s and perhaps even a few right at the 90 degree mark.  In other words, back to hot & humid conditions more typical of summer.

Notice the max/min temperatures for today, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.  Those 50s for the morning hours have sure been nice, but will be replaced by 60s to start the day Tuesday and again on Wednesday.  Thursday morning will likely be near 70 for a morning low as you can see on our forecast page.  We will have generally fair skies for much of the night tonight and partly cloudy skies for the next few days along with a S/SE wind of 10-15 mph for the overnight hours and 15-30 or more during the day.

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As the moisture returns, a series of systems aloft will be moving across the state giving us a chance of showers/storms each of the next few days as well.  There remains a good deal of uncertainty regarding the timing and intensity of each system so the amount of rainfall we receive by the time it is all said and done is questionable.  However, the potential is there for a decent soaking as you can see on the 7 day QPF map.  I know, we have had several systems over the past month or more which also had what appeared to be some good rainfall potential and each one did not live up to expectations.  So, will take this with a grain of salt for now and monitor the subsequent data runs to see if the trends support a good soaking or start trending down again.

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As for timing, we will have a chance of storms primarily over the more NW counties for later Tue and into the overnight hours, another chance later Wednesday and overnight, but the best chance looks to be Thursday night into the morning of Friday. Cannot rule out the potential for some of these storms to be severe, particularly over the more NW counties later Tuesday and Tuesday night as you can see on the storm zone.  Right now, it appears that hail and damaging winds would be the primary threat, but cannot rule out the potential for a tornado given the dynamics involved.  The storms late Thursday and overnight may also have some severe potential so will have to monitor closely for that possibility as well.

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The Thursday night system will be followed by a stronger cool front along with cloudy skies and brisk northerly winds.  That means much cooler for Friday and back to more Fall-like conditions going into the coming weekend.  However, the coming weekend also looks to be dry along with mostly sunny skies so it should be quite pleasant.

But, those cooler temperatures are not expected to last long as the 8-14 day outlook has a strong signal suggesting temperatures above normal for that following week.  That would most likely translate to daytime highs back into the 80s and overnight lows well into the 50s or even 60s.   Also, the 8-14 day outlook is keeping our chances of additional moisture in the below normal category so if we do not receive some decent rains this week, it may be at least another week or more before we get another chance.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot