The data yesterday started suggesting a real-deal taste of fall nearing the area Sunday into next week. This morning we continue to see those suggestions with highs next week, in some data, topping out in the upper 60s and to mid-70s! But before we experience any kind of cool-down, we still have today and the rest of the week to get through with highs in the lower to mid-90s. The local dew points have dropped a few degrees compared to yesterday’s sauna. At this point, heat indices will not reach the criteria for advisories across the area this afternoon with actual temperatures climbing to near 95 in the metro today along with south winds at 10 mph. We’ll keep the mostly sunny conditions today. One or two isolated storms may again develop across far southeastern OK but the odds are too low to mention on the big 7-day panel.
The mid-level ridge of high pressure continues to be the dominate feature today but will migrate eastward while weakening during the next 36 hours. A potent looking trough in the west will near the desert southwest Friday into the weekend but will remain west of our immediate area through the period. Recent data develops the main trough into the central plains this weekend and lifts this energy into the central to upper Midwest early next week which becomes a big player in our weather Sunday through early next week. A weak disturbance may also move near the area Friday night with a few storms a possibility along the Red River Valley of southern OK. Most, if not all of the area Friday night will be void of precipitation.
This weekend features lows in the lower 70s and highs in the upper 80s Saturday. A few showers or storms will be likely across the western third of the state Saturday morning but most of our area may remain dry for the early morning hours. By Saturday evening showers and storms will begin reaching eastern OK and should continue through part of Sunday. This slow moving front will interact with the abundant low level moisture to produce pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall along with the threat for one or two strong to severe storms. The bi-product will be clouds and rain-cooled air for Sunday. Our temps will start in the upper 60s and finish in the mid to upper 70s. The data does diverge Sunday into Monday with the handling of the main upper level trough with some data slower and others faster with the ejection. This means we’re keeping a slight chance of showers and storms Monday but may need to adjust the pops based on the confidence of the timing. If the storms last longer our Monday temps will also need to come down. At this point, we’re sticking with highs in the mid-70s Monday and Tuesday.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a good day.