Good Chance For Showers, Storms

Once again, scattered showers and storms have developed over much of the state during the day today and are currently in the process of dying off with the loss of daytime heating.  However, a SW flow pattern aloft may support a few isolated showers or storms into the morning hours so will keep at least a slight chance in the forecast for tonight.  Rainfall totals so far today also reflect the slow movement and scattered nature of the showers with some locations picking up an inch or more while nearby locations barely got enough to settle the dust.

[img]

Speaking of settling the dust, here is the most recent drought monitor which by the way is updated once a week on Thursdays.  As you can see, drought continues to spread for some sections of the Sooner State and a more widespread rain event is what we need.

[img]

We do have better chances for showers and storms during the day Friday but those chances will be tapering off by Saturday morning and much of next week looks to be very warm and very dry.  So, if we do not get a good soaking over the next 24-48 hours, then it may be another week or more before our next good chance comes along.

As mentioned, there will be at least a few showers/storms lingering through the night tonight due to the more favorable wind pattern aloft.  Then, as things start to warm up during the day Friday, look for showers and storms to be more widespread and extending into the Friday night and Saturday morning time frame before moving on eastward.  Again, this is due to a more favorable SW wind flow aloft with some embedded disturbances working with the warm, humid air near the surface.

After Saturday, the wind pattern aloft will become less favorable as ridging builds back over the state so fewer showers or storms are expected by Sunday and little or no mention of rain for much of next week.  Notice the 3 day QPF which continues to support the potential for an inch or two of rain but keep in mind, that does not mean everyone will receive that much.  Some will get much more and nearby locations much less as has been the case in recent days.

[img]

Also, no change in air mass is expected which means we will remain very warm and humid.  Notice the max/min temperatures for today and more of the same is expected for Friday and into the weekend.  The mostly cloudy skies will keep temperatures at least somewhat in check for daytime highs but the moisture will also keep us from cooling much at night as you can see on our forecast page.  In fact, as we go into next week with little or no cooling shower activity and more sunshine, daytime highs will be back into the lower 90s and heat index values likely reaching the upper 90s.  So, we are not quite through with summer-like weather yet.

[img]

Looking further downstream, the 8-14 day outlook is suggesting near normal temperatures along with wetter than normal conditions.  So, even at the longer time ranges, the data runs are not currently suggesting any really cool, fall-like weather appears to be headed this way anytime soon.

[img]

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot