Warm, Humid, Increasing Chances for Rain.

Since we have a good chance of rain in the days ahead, thought a look back at the last 30 days would be instructive.  Notice the wide range in rainfall from location to location with some folks receiving less than one inch over that time frame and others considerably more. 

[img]

For the most part though, it is getting rather dry for this time of year and that is reflected in the Drought Monitor which shows some locations here in E OK are now in severe drought.

[img]

Bottom line is that some folks have received too much rain not that far away, Kansas for example, while around here many are looking for a good rain.  Usually it is the more western counties that dry out during the course of the summer but that has not happened this year. 

At any rate, our chances of rain will be starting with a slight chance tonight into Wednesday and then a better chance for Thursday into the day Friday.  As you can see on our forecast page, only a few spotty showers with maybe a rumble of thunder is expected tonight but most of the overnight activity should stay well west of us or dissipate with the loss of daytime heating.  However, a light SE breeze, lots of clouds, and dew points well into the 60s and even near 70 will keep us from cooling much tonight as overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to near 70.

As we go through the day Wednesday, again a light E or SE breeze when the wind blows at all, partly sunny skies and a few scattered showers/storms that may pop up at any time should hold daytime temperatures into the 80s.  In other words, not quite as warm as it was today although temperatures during the early morning hours will be very similar to what we experienced today.  However, those high dew points will make it feel like it is another 5-10 degrees warmer.

[img]

A weak boundary moving into the state this evening is becoming diffuse and therefore a very light wind from most any direction is expected for Wednesday.  A return to a more southerly wind for Thu/Fri will keep the warm, humid air over us but conditions aloft will support better chances of showers and a few storms, particularly on Friday the way things are looking now.  In fact, some shower activity may linger well into the day Saturday.

Currently, it does not appear that a system strong enough to clear us out and cool things off such as we enjoyed last weekend is coming this way anytime soon.  That means warm, humid air will remain in place through the weekend and going into next week.  That also means partly cloudy to at times mostly cloudy skies with almost daily chances of rain.  The caveat is that at those longer time ranges, any systems in the flow aloft will likely be rather weak and difficult to time very far in advance.  So for now, will go with just a few isolated showers into early next week and will keep Sunday dry as it appears to be between systems.  However, that is subject to change as the longer range guidance continues to show day to day and model to model inconsistencies leading to a low confidence forecast at those longer time ranges.

Looking further downstream, the 8-14 day outlook is now suggesting normal to perhaps above normal temperatures along with wetter than normal conditions.  So, even at the longer time ranges, the data runs are not currently suggesting any really cool, fall-like weather appears to be headed this way anytime soon.

[img]

[img]

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot