Another Active Pattern In Eastern Oklahoma This Week

Monday, September 12th 2016, 3:58 am
By: Alan Crone

The weekend was super great.  But the southeasterly surface flow has already commenced across eastern OK and low level moisture will quickly return across the area during the next 24 to 48 hours.  

Warmer conditions will return with highs in the lower 90s both today and tomorrow.  The week will become rather active with several chances for showers and storms including the first chance Tuesday into Wednesday as a boundary nears the state. Additional rain and storm chances will remain for the end of the week with periods of heavy rainfall a possibility for some locations before a second front crosses the area sometime Friday night or Saturday morning.  

The threat for severe weather this week is not zero but will remain relatively low for the middle of the week.

The first system will near the state Tuesday night into Wednesday with some scattered showers and storms a possibility.  The timing may support a few showers or storms tomorrow during the day to our west before nearing our eastern OK region by evening. This boundary may cross the northern half of the state before stalling across the Red River Valley Wednesday and lifting northward as a quasi-warm front Thursday.  

A stronger system will be nearing the central plains by the end of the week with a surface low pressure area developing across southeastern Colorado into southwestern Kansas Thursday ejecting eastward Friday into the weekend.  The front to our south will retreat northward sometime Thursday with increasing rain and storm chances as low level moisture streams northward over the state. 

 As the low ejects into the plains another front will emerge and progress southeast by Friday or Friday night.   This period will bring enhanced rain and storm chances back to the area along with at least a limited threat of severe storms in some locations.   It’s too early to pinpoint any specific timeline information other than a general period of Friday for the highest rainfall potential.  

The Saturday morning period may see the front quickly surging southward with improving conditions for most of northern OK.   We have controversy Sunday regarding the handling of a few upper level features and consequently the day is still up for grabs regarding the outcome.   We’ve sided with the GFS at this point which points toward a pleasant dry day.   The EURO is different with rain chances returning.   More on this one tomorrow.

Temperatures today will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s with sunshine and southeast winds at 10 to 22 mph.   Tuesday morning lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s will be followed by highs in the lower 90s with partly cloudy and breezy conditions.  We’ll have a chance for a few showers or storms Tuesday late into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday a chance of showers and storms will remain with lows in the lower 70s and highs in the upper 80s along with mostly cloudy conditions and south winds shifting to the north.

Thursday through Friday features increasing rain and storm chances, more so by Friday with the potential for heavy rainfall.   Temperatures this weekend will feature lows in the 60s and highs in the lower to mid-80s.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone