The mid-level ridge of high pressure has weakened and is moving westward this morning. A weak front located to the north of the state will slowly drift southward.
Some scattered showers and storms will remain possible; not only for the next few hours, but also for the next several days as these two features will bring the possibility of storms to part of eastern Oklahoma. A few of the storms may be strong to near severe with a damaging downburst of wind possible, but we anticipate that most storms will remain below severe weather criteria.
As the ridge basically remains west of the area by midweek, the upper air flow will become even more favorable for periodic storms to either develop or move into the northeastern OK region. At this point, we have a steady diet of storm chances for the entire week in the 20% to 40% range but some higher chances will eventually be required in the 7 day planner once individual waves become more easily noticeable in the data and as the confidence increases for the timing of such disturbances.
Confidence is rather low at this point with individual timing. Most data support a sharper northwest flow developing by Wednesday and continuing through Saturday morning. This means at least one or two storm complexes will have a shot of moving across the area for the 2nd half of the 7 day planner.
Regarding this morning: A few storms should eventually develop of move into northern OK as a weak outflow to the west approaches and storms to the north drift southward. Additional storms may also develop later today across part of eastern or southeastern OK. The confidence on the exact timing is low for this period and therefore, our pops will also remain somewhat low compared to some model output.
Temperatures will stay in the 70s this morning and move into the lower or mid-90s this afternoon along with east or southeast winds around 10 mph. The temperature heat index values will stay below advisory criteria but will also continue to stay around 100 to 103 for some locations. Despite the lack of advisories across the area, the pattern will continue to produce conditions that could lead to heat exhaustion for those engaging in outdoor activities. You are still encouraged to take precautions against the heat and remain hydrated. The temperatures may also come down a few degrees in the midweek period.
The extended data will support the ridge reforming and strengthening across the southern plains late next weekend into early next week bringing the hot and dry conditions back to the southern plains.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!