Most of us could use a good rain as the month of June has not been very generous to this point. In fact, officially Tulsa has only received just over ½” so far which is more than 3” below normal. However, at this time of year when a storm does form, it is not uncommon for them to move very slowly which can result in a local deluge. Here is the statewide 24 hour rainfall map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Some scattered showers produced some decent rains in a few locations but the bulls-eye in N Central OK really stands out. That particular cell just sat there for several hours last night and radar estimates suggest more than 5” fell and the Mesonet site at Newkirk which was just outside the heaviest rainfall recorded more than 1.5”
I mention all that because for the most part we are getting dry with some local exceptions. Notice the drought monitor for the state which does suggest we are starting to dry out. The highlighted areas do not necessarily mean they are currently in a drought, just that those locations are entering the beginning stages and if some decent rains do not occur in the near future, then they will be upgraded to drought status.
So, what are the chances for some decent rains. Again, summertime showers/storms are often more localized and not the widespread soaking rains of late winter into the spring months. However, the pattern aloft is finally showing signs of a change that would result in better chances of showers/storms as we head into the next week or two.
Notice the 7 day QPF map for example which does suggest some locally heavy rains mainly over the more northern sections of the state and into KS. That will be in response to a frontal boundary that will be sagging this way late Sunday and then stalling out just south of us going into next week. Another, even stronger boundary will follow that one later in the week with another chance of showers/storms as you can see on our forecast page.
As for this weekend, Saturday will be rather quiet with partly cloudy skies, brisk southerly winds, and morning lows in the 70s along with daytime highs in the mid 90s. Warmer than normal to be sure, but at least the heat index values should top out around 100-105 which is not nearly the extreme of recent days. Sunday will also be much warmer than normal but look for a chance of showers/storms late in the day for the more northern counties which will then spread on southward that night to be followed by redevelopment for Monday. Right now, Monday looks to have our best chance for some decent rainfall; in fact the best chance we have had all month long.
Lingering showers into Tuesday and a dry Wednesday will then be followed by another chance of rain for later in the week and perhaps into that following weekend. We will also see a break in the oppressive heat and humidity as our surface winds will be from a more E to NE to SE direction during that time period.
And, to top it all off as we head on into July, the longer range guidance continues to suggest below normal temperatures and above normal chances for precipitation as you can see on the 8-14 day outlooks. Cautiously optimistic that will actually come to pass.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.