Another Chance Of Storms Friday, Break For The Weekend?

Mighty short thermometer today for Tulsa.  Morning low was 77 which by the way, if it holds, will set a record for the warmest morning low on this date.  I say, if it holds, since we have had some breaks in the clouds this evening and dew point temperatures have dropped into the 60s which may allow us to drop into the lower 70s by midnight.  The daytime high has been 84 so only a 7 degree spread.  Quite a contrast to one week ago today when we set a record for the coolest daytime high with a maximum temperature of only 64 degrees.  As you can see on the statewide max/min temperature map, lots more sunshine in SW OK resulted in much warmer temperatures there this afternoon.

[img]

The cloudy skies that persisted for much of the day today certainly contributed to the short thermometer and Friday will be much the same.  Although we have had some clearing this evening, look for a low level stratus cloud deck again by morning and mostly cloudy skies through the day Friday.  As a result, morning lows will be in the 60s to near 70 followed by daytime highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.  We will keep a brisk SE wind through the day and there will also be a better chance of showers/storms, some of which could become severe.  Notice the severe weather threat map for Friday which suggests a low end threat but with the abundant moisture in place and a brisk SE winds at the surface, cannot rule anything out.

[img]

This active pattern we have been in will not change dramatically anytime soon.  The SW flow pattern aloft and the southerly surface winds will maintain daily chances of showers/storms, some of which could be severe on just about any given day.  Having said that, there are indications that we may get at least a bit of a break this weekend.  One upper level system will be ejecting on Friday and thus the reason for the better chances of showers and storms, particularly late in the day or that night.  Conditions aloft are then expected to be less favorable for at least a day or two so only slight chances of showers/storms for Sat/Sun.  However, the trough to the west will reload by early next week and set us up for increased chances of showers/storms once again as you can see on our forecast page.

With the daily chances of showers/storms, the potential remains for some locally heavy rains over the coming week.  Notice the 7 day QPF map which suggests the possibility of several more inches of rain going into June.

[img]

This pattern will also keep temperatures from changing a great deal from day today.  Southerly winds will maintain lots of low level moisture so the main impact on temperatures will be the amount of cloud cover from one day to the next and therefore no major changes for at least several more days.

The longer range guidance does suggest at least the possibility of a weak front making it this far south along about Thursday of next week.  If so, it would likely stall out so no major changes in temperatures are expected.  With a boundary in the proximity, that would also suggest continued chances of showers/storms.  Notice on the 8-14 day outlook that this pattern continues to suggest above normal chances of showers/storms well into June and with the extra cloud cover somewhat cooler than normal temperatures.

[img]

[img]

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot