A few storms developed last night to our west ahead of the dry line but could not survive eastward overnight. Outflows from Kansas storms may attempt to slide across far NE OK later this morning. And a disturbance located across TX may move northeast into southern OK by early afternoon.
All of this means we’ll keep a chance for storms in the forecast including the possibility of strong to severe weather.
The main upper level system we’ve been tracking for many days will be nearing the state over the next 36 hours and additional storms will be likely for some locations, including the threats of severe weather. The chance for storms will diminish some this weekend, but not totally leave the area. And another weaker disturbance will approach early next week with additional storms a possibility. Warm and moist conditions will remain for the next several days with no air mass change expected across the southern plains.
Our main upper level system is currently across part of Arizona this morning and will rapidly eject east and northeast out of the four corners area into the central plains by Friday night and Saturday morning. A surface dry line will be established across far Western OK and the high plains of Texas today and Friday with rich low level moisture in the form of lower 70s dew points across Oklahoma.
Several rounds of storms will be possible during this period and all modes of severe weather will be possible. The exact timing will be refined later today, but storms are expected to develop near the dry line this afternoon and spread northeast. Additionally storms may develop well ahead of the dry line across central or eastern OK this afternoon.
Late tonight a storm complex may form across part of northwest TX and move east and northeast into southern OK by early Friday morning. This early arriving storm complex may still be severe pre-dawn Friday as it moves into southern or southeastern OK.
The early arrival of this complex may disrupt the moisture flow into northeastern OK during the day Friday. If this is the case, the main threats for severe weather Friday would remain across southeastern and southcentral OK southward into Texas. But for this update, we’ll keep mentions of severe weather in the forecast for Friday.
This weekend the main upper level system is exiting northeast but the air mass will not change. This means a few isolated storms may be possible Saturday and Sunday due to daytime heating and small waves in the upper air flow. Temperatures will remain warm and conditions muggy with south winds and partly cloudy conditions.
Monday and next week will continue to feature warm and muggy conditions along with storm chances on a daily basis. A weak mid-level disturbance is expected to move near the region early next week resulting in the storm chances. Some of the storms would be strong to severe.
Please remain aware of your weather surroundings for the next few days.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day.