Active Pattern To Continue

Active weather pattern continues for the foreseeable future as you can see on our forecast page.  We will carry at least a chance of showers/storms on any given day but with some day to day variation in the areal coverage and intensity.  Wherever those storms do occur, they can drop some locally heavy rainfall amounts as you can see on the 24 hour rainfall totals, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. 

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Not only that, but there will continue to be at least a slight risk of severe storms with all modes possible as exhibited by the EF-1 tornado that occurred near Bristow yesterday.

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Once again, there remains the possibility of storms forming west of us this evening and moving this way during the overnight hours but weakening as they do so.  Then, look for a better chance of showers/storms forming west of us on Thursday and moving this way that evening or through the overnight hours.  Notice the upper level wind chart at the 300 mb level or about 31,000’ as of this morning.  As you can see we have a SW wind flow aloft and the upper level jet stream is also stronger as it comes our way. Those stronger winds aloft will be responsible for the better chance of storms, some severe, through the day Friday.

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By Saturday and going into next week those winds aloft will be weaker but still from a SW direction.  Notice the chart for the same level aloft which keeps a trough to the west of the Plains States and a continued SW wind flow.  But, notice also the wind speeds are much less as the system aloft weakens and that suggests a decrease in the severe weather potential as we head into next week.  However, that persistent SW flow aloft is also a potential trouble maker as there will be embedded disturbances that are very difficult to predict in advance. 

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The daily chances of showers/storms could also result in some locally heavy rains by the time it is all said and done.  Notice the 7 day QPF map for example.

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At the same time, our surface winds will remain from a southerly direction throughout this forecast cycle keeping very warm and humid air over us.  With dew point temperatures holding well into the 60s if not the 70s, then our nights will not be cooling much and with daytime highs well into the 80s, then the combination of heat and humidity will make it rather uncomfortable.

And, this active pattern looks to persist well into next week as we head into Summer.  In other words, it could get interesting over the next week or two and strongly advise keeping a close eye on the weather as there may be some significant day to day variations in storm location/intensity/timing. 

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot