As has been mentioned before, the month of May is normally our wettest month of the year and as you can see on the 14 day rainfall map, it certainly has been wet for some locations; but, not so much for many others. In fact, up until the showers we received last night, May has started off very dry for Tulsa with only 0.28” of rain up to that point. Last night’s rainfall and the off again/on again showers today have added to those totals somewhat but many locations are still under one inch so far for the month.
We expect to be adding to those totals with a good chance of additional showers and thunder for the overnight hours tonight which should be moving on eastward during the morning followed by a break in the rain chances for the balance of the day and into the day Wednesday. The cloudy skies and occasional showers today have kept temperatures on the cool side as you can see on the max/min temperature map. That also means a lack of surface based instability which will be a limitation for any severe storms to develop as we go through the night tonight and into the day Tuesday.
However, some thunder is certainly possible overnight due to elevated instability and the potential for a low level jet to develop. But, the latest/greatest data runs suggest both of those options are very limited so our severe threat for the overnight hours will be minimal which for May is remarkable in itself.
After those showers move on eastward by early morning, lingering low level cloud cover could wring out some drizzle or a few sprinkles but much of the late morning through the afternoon should be relatively dry. Wednesday also will have at least a slight chance of rain or a few showers, but there should also be some sunshine during the day. Much the same is expected for Thursday with mostly cloudy skies as a rule and another good chance of showers and thunder late in the day which will extend into early Friday. It looks like this round of active weather will mostly end on Friday with only a minimal chance of showers/storms going into the weekend. As you can see on the 5 day QPF map, this all adds up to the potential for some generous rains this week and perhaps even some localized drainage issues.
The active weather for tonight will be followed by a return to a brisk northerly wind for much of the day Tuesday behind another cool front. That will be followed by a more NE wind on Wednesday and a more E wind on Thursday. Together with the clouds and shower chances, those winds will keep temperatures below normal all week as you can see on our forecast page.
By the time the weekend rolls around, a return to southerly winds and at least some sunshine should push temperatures back into the lower 80s along with little or no mention of rain.
Looking further down the road, the 8-14 day guidance continues to suggest an active pattern and also more in the way of warmer temperatures. That would be more favorable for severe weather and since this is May could create some interesting situations during that time frame.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.