We’re halfway through the month of May and just as the severe storms seemed to be on hiatus, it’s back to an active weather pattern again. While there is the threat for a round or two of severe storms this week, it will be an almost continuous chance of rain (of various magnitudes) until the end of the week. We’ll be craving the elusive sunshine by week’s end.
Our first round of rain is shifting into Green Country tonight. Fighting the dry air, these showers won’t add up to too much in the area. By the morning hours on Monday, heavier rain will develop north of an advancing warm front, putting at least our northern sections in for a very soggy start to the work week. The rest of us will find our skies enveloped in clouds with an occasional shower or storm during the day Monday.
It gets more interesting that night. A complex of severe thunderstorms likely forms in the panhandle region and races eastward along the warm front, which will be draped over northeast Oklahoma. Should the storms hold together, they will bring a risk for damaging winds, hail and localized flash flooding. The tornado threat is limited, but is not zero. This batch of rain will continue to affect the region Tuesday morning, giving us another murky start to the day. Rain and storms will slowly clear from north to south, but the clouds are likely to remain, keeping us on the cool side that afternoon.
Moving forward, Wednesday will be the small break between systems. However, residual moisture will stick around, keeping the cloud cover locked overhead. We can always hope the sun may break out from hiding, but we may have to wait for the weekend to work on that tan.
Another storm system traverses the Southern Plains Thursday into Friday. It doesn’t appear overly strong at this time, with a lack of instability holding down the severe weather threat. Still, showers and a few storms are possible over those two days. Total rainfall could exceed 3” over northeast Oklahoma by Friday. It may not be enough to send rivers out of their banks, but flash flooding could definitely occur with saturated soils and any heavy downpour.
Our reward for making it through the dreary week will be a weekend full of warmth and sunshine. It appears that an upper level ridge builds over the Plains, holding back the next storm system until at least early next week. This bodes well for a good portion of Mayfest, the HopJams festival and many other events going on over the weekend. The end of the month will likely still be active. After a quiet weekend, a wetter than normal week to follow is already in the forecast
Until then, break out the rain gear and stay weather aware Monday night into Tuesday. For the latest rain and storm updates, be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook page.