The slow moving storm system from last night managed to drop some extremely heavy rains for a few locations although most of us missed out. Notice the rainfall across the state and the 8+inches near Lake Tenkiller really stand out, particularly in relation to nearby locations.
At least the skies cleared quickly this morning and the abundant sunshine together with northerly winds resulted in a very pleasant day. `In fact, temperatures were close to normal for a change as Tulsa came in with a max/min of 79/60 which is pretty close to the normal of 78/58 at this time of year.
However, those northerly winds during the day have brought in some very dry air and with the clear overnight skies and light winds, look for temperatures to be rather cool first thing in the morning with overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Sunshine to start the day and a return to southerly winds increasing to 15-20 mph or more during the afternoon should push our daytime highs into the lower 80s as you can see on our forecast page.
After that, clouds will be on the increase Friday night and little if any sunshine is then expected through the weekend and well into the following week. Another, stronger cool front will arrive Friday night and although it will not have much moisture to work with could produce some showers and perhaps even some thunder. The chances are rather low and that will also be the case on Saturday with a low end chance of rain or showers. However, the brisk northerly winds and cloudy skies will make for a much cooler day with daytime highs expected to hold in the 60s. Quite a contrast to the 80s expected on Friday.
Sunday also looks to be cool and possibly wet with a good chance of light rain or showers together with a NE wind hold temperatures pretty much in the 60s once again. If you have weekend plans, it does not appear that this weekend will be a total washout as the showers on Saturday are expected to be very light and at most only a 30% coverage so many locations will stay dry although it will certainly be cool. Sunday will have the better chance of rain, but again it does not appear to be an all day, everywhere type of event although it will certainly remain on the cool side.
Right now, Monday looks to be the most likely day for showers and storms and the possibility of locally heavy rainfall. There remains some question marks regarding how far north the warm sector will be able to return during the day which will play a huge factor in our severe weather threat. Right now, it appears that the warm sector and therefore the most likely locations for severe will be well south but that may well change with subsequent data runs. As the 7 day QPF suggests, we may end up with some significant rainfall by the time this is all said and done.
At any rate, this unsettled pattern looks to persist through at least Tuesday with another good chance of showers or storms with perhaps a break by the Wed/Thu time frame. Have kept a minimal chance of showers for now due to some uncertainty in the longer range guidance but the data currently suggests a more stable pattern for late next week into that following weekend. But, as you can see on the 8-14 day outlooks, an unsettled pattern may well return which would certainly be no surprise since this is May.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.