Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Severe Storm Chances Again Today

Wednesday, May 11th 2016, 4:17 am
By: Alan Crone

A few storms managed to form last night and moved across part of southeastern Kansas. These produced some hail and a few severe thunderstorm warnings. This activity is located well northeast of the state this morning. 

We anticipate another warm day with highs in the mid to upper 80s along with south winds from 10 to 15 mph before the next storm system moves into the area this evening with additional thunderstorm chances. 

Some of the storms this evening may be severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary severe weather threats. The tornado threat will be low. We’ll get another break tomorrow midday to afternoon that will extend into Friday before another front oozes into the state this weekend with a few additional shower or storm chances.  

Temperatures will be below the seasonal average this weekend and may last for a few days next week.

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Our upper air flow will take another upper trough across the central part of the nation today with two areas of low pressure developing in response to evacuating mass fields. The first low will form somewhere across northwestern OK or southwestern Kansas this morning and track rapidly to the northeast by later this afternoon.  

This surface low should be in the southern or eastern Missouri region by this afternoon.  A second area of low pressure may develop across the high plains of Texas and migrate southeast along a cold front that will be associated with the surface low in Missouri.  

Temperatures around the 5k feet level would support a strong capping inversion for most of the afternoon ahead of the boundary. This will suppress thunderstorm activity for most of the day. But as the main trough brushes the state, colder air aloft will advance across the plains. The front will begin moving southeast and storms will attempt to develop. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat. The tornado threat will remain low but not zero. 

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The timing will be tricky.  I’ll need to offer a broad area of opportunity with the timing due to the uncertainty of the capping inversion.   This means the main window may be from 3 pm to 3 am but a more favorable time period will be from 6 pm to 1 am.  

Thursday morning some data support lingering showers and thunder in the post frontal regime for a few hours. Highs Thursday will remain in the mid-70s.

We’ll get a break Friday with a surface ridge of high pressure developing across the state allowing lows in the 50s and highs in the lower or mid-80s with dry conditions.

The weekend is interesting in the data and frankly highly uncertain due to some inconsistency in model to model and run to run comparisons. 

The upper air pattern will be changing. We anticipate a northwest flow aloft for a few days this weekend into early next week before the pattern flattens out.  A surface cold front is expected to ooze southward Saturday and bring north winds into the northern half of the state along with highs in the upper 60s or lower 70s.  A weak vort may produce a few showers Saturday across the northern or western sections of the state. Our chances will remain around 20%.

Sunday into Monday becomes uncertain into the early part of next week as some important surface features are not consistent in this data. Here’s the plan: we’ll stay in around 70 Sunday and Monday, and we’ll keep a mention of showers and storms in the forecast for this period.

 I’ll refrain from another speculation at this point regarding severe potential because the predictability is too low with this data set. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone