One More Round Tonight, Then Sunshine.

We have received at least some rainfall for 5 straight days now and there will be another chance for the overnight hours tonight.  That will be the last from this particular system that has produced such widespread rainfall across much of the country and of course across OK.  Notice the 5 day rainfall totals, courtesy of the good folks at the OK Mesonet, which clearly show how generous this system has been.  The rainfall totals over the past 24 hours are also shown to indicate how much additional rainfall last night’s system brought as it moved through.

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That system is finally weakening and beginning to kick on out to the east but as it does there will be one more chance of showers/thunder for later tonight.  Most of what falls should be relatively light for us but there might be a rumble or two of thunder.  This will be after midnight and those showers will then be moving on eastward out of the state during the morning hours of Thursday.  That will be followed by clearing skies during the day and lots of afternoon sunshine. 

Morning lows will be in the lower 50s, daytime highs well into the 70s, our winds will be light and generally from a NW direction and this all adds up to what should be a very pleasant Thursday afternoon.  As you can see on our forecast page that will be followed by another very pleasant day on Friday and temperatures will be warming as we go through the weekend and into next week. 

After that, it starts getting interesting as another in a series of upper level storm systems will begin to impact the state.  Notice the upper level map as of Noon today in which I have indicated the position of the slow moving storm system that has brought the rains of the last 5 days.  As mentioned, that system is finally weakening and being ejected on eastward but I have also indicated the position of the next couple of systems that are expected to impact OK in the days ahead.  Notice they are well out in the N Pacific Ocean so there is still considerable uncertainty regarding their ultimate track/intensity/timing which will not be fully resolved till they move into our land based observational network.

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Having said that, the longer range guidance has been pretty consistent in recent days in bringing the first one into the Southern Rockies and then out into the Plains on Sunday and then the trailing and stronger system also into the Southern Rockies and out into the Plains along about Tuesday/Wednesday.  These systems will be more progressive than what we just experienced as they will not be stalling out and lingering over the mountains for days on end as the present system has done. 

The set-up for those systems will also be more favorable for severe weather, but again the devil will be in the details and it is impossible at this time frame to be any more specific.  The time of year is certainly favorable and the longer range guidance is certainly suggesting that possibility.

At any rate, after tonight our next chance of showers/storms will be late Sunday or Sunday night and some of those will likely be severe.  The latest/greatest data runs currently suggest the focus for this event will likely be further north but that is certainly subject to change.

That will be followed by the next system which is currently expected to impact the state on Tuesday perhaps into the day Wednesday.  Right now, that looks to be the more favorable set-up for severe weather but again it is far too early to be any more specific at this time frame. 

As you can see on the 8-14 day outlook, an active pattern will likely persist through the end of April and into the month of May.  Certainly nothing unusual about that as this is normally our wettest time of year anyway as well as our stormiest time of year.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.  It could get interesting later this weekend into next week.

Dick Faurot