Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Nice Friday, But Tracking The Rain


Friday, April 15th 2016, 4:09 am
By: Alan Crone


The much advertised upper level low will be advancing closer to our area by the 2nd half of the weekend bringing increasing rain and thunderstorm chances to the region.   We're in good shape today and tomorrow with pleasant weather conditions likely for most of the area.   Temperatures will remain mild, not only today, but for the next several days.   Wind speeds will be increasing tomorrow through the weekend.   We'll see a slight increase in south winds today.

WARN Interactive Radar

The main upper low is now positioned across the Pacific Northwest and moving toward the Rockies. This low will remain across the Rockies for the next several days due to a blocking pattern in the upper levels of the atmosphere.   This pattern occurs on occasion and is frequent enough to have a name.   The omega block is a term used to describe the upper air pattern that resembles the Greek letter omega when these features are present.   This block will not allow the upper low to kick out into the stream for several days.   The result will be a slowly advancing storm system with storm chances highest to our west today and Saturday and increasing thunderstorm chances Sunday evening into Monday.   There will be a threat of severe storms across the high plains of Texas today and into western Oklahoma tomorrow, but as the low finally moves eastward Sunday, the upper flow will begin to weaken.   We'll need to include a mention of a few strong to severe storms Sunday night into Monday but the threat appears marginal at this point in the forecast process.   The more favored areas for severe weather may remain to our south.  The southerly surface flow will bring moisture back across the state soon and this moisture is expected to result in pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall in some locations Sunday night into Monday.   We tend to refer to these storms as efficient rain makers.   As a side note, locations on the "top" side of the system will see a decent snow storm in the Rockies as this system parks over the mountains for day or two.  

Our weather today should be nice.   Lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s will be followed up by highs in the mid to upper 70s with mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions and southeast winds at 10 to 18 mph.    Saturday gusty southeast winds are likely with mostly cloudy to partly cloudy sky.   There may be a few spotty showers or sprinkles Saturday morning as low level moisture begins streaming back into the state as our surface pressure to the west begins to fall.   Any pop would be very small and short lived.   I'll refrain from putting a percentage on the 7 day planner for Saturday.   Sunday the better timing for storms to arrive will be late in the afternoon, or better yet, late Sunday night.   Highs Sunday will be in the mid to upper 70s with south winds at 15 to 30 mph.   Monday showers and storms will remain likely with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s and highs in the lower 70s. 

The main upper level low will be near the state Tuesday and Wednesday and could keep triggering some widely scattered showers or storms each day.   The data is more robust for Wednesday and our pops will be fashioned in this manner.  

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone