Warmer & Windy Tuesday, Chance Storms Wednesday.

The normal last freeze date for Tulsa is Mar 29, so there is certainly nothing unusual about the freezing temperatures experienced early this morning.  After that cold start, the sunny skies and a light SE wind made for a very pleasant day and afternoon temperatures were actually a bit above normal.  66/41 is the normal max/min for this time of year in Tulsa and today’s numbers were 68/31.

[img]

Look for much milder conditions for Tuesday as SE winds will continue all night long which should keep overnight temperatures in the mid 40s for the most part.  Stronger SE winds during the day will warm us into the lower 70s but the moisture will be somewhat slow to return.  That means a high fire danger for Tuesday as those winds will be gusting to 25 mph or more at times and the relative humidity during the heat of the day will be dropping into the 30% range.  The day will also start off with fair skies becoming partly cloudy as the day wears on.

As you can see on our forecast page, we look to stay dry for Tuesday, but there will be a good chance of showers and storms on Wednesday.  In fact, the set-up suggests the potential for some severe weather as we will have strong southerly winds ahead of a storm system that will be moving across the state Wednesday night.  Ahead of that storm system, a dry line is expected to be established near the I-35 corridor providing a focus for the storms to develop.  That does not mean the day will be a total wash-out as the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall is on the order of 50-60% and primarily during the afternoon/evening hours.  As you can see, there is that threat of severe weather with all modes possible largely due to the strength of the wind flow at the surface and aloft. 

[img]

Unfortunately, the rains from those storms will not fall where it is most needed as the 7 day QPF map has the western counties of OK pretty much high and dry.  Even here in Green Country, it appears the deeper moisture for the storms to feed on will be well east of us as the heavier rains are anticipated much further to our east.

[img]

Brisk NW winds behind the cold front that moves through Wednesday night will then cool us off for the latter part of the week and the first part of the weekend.  But, that will be followed by another big warm-up before the weekend is over and going into the following week.  In fact, after what looks to be a rather cool start to April, things should be warming rather nicely as shown on the 8-14 day outlook. 

[img]

Also, the pattern suggests relatively quiet weather during that time frame, but it will be early April and things can change in a hurry.  So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

[img]

Dick Faurot