Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Rain Not Finished Yet

A few showers made a late day run at northern OK yesterday but most of the precipitation remained slightly south of the I-44 region.   This morning we’ll find some light showers across extreme eastern OK and southeastern sections of the state.   This zone, again southeast of the metro, will have the better chance for showers for the morning to midday.   Light precipitation will be possible.   And yes, we’ll need to keep a slight pop for the metro, but the chance will be very small.

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Today should feature mostly cloudy and cool conditions again with highs in the mid-60s along with northeast winds.   We should see another sun-break or two late this afternoon.   But the pattern will remain active and our chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for the next few days.   We’ll see improving conditions for a few days next week with a warming trend.  The data around Wednesday to the end of next week remain highly inconsistent.  

Most of the day will be precipitation free for the metro but later tonight into Friday the rain chances will return across part of the area as the main upper level low begins to lift out near the region.  This system has been a major upper trough for several days and has been unusual due to the track of the system through across southern Mexico.  

The temperatures aloft will cool and some thunder may be in the mix by Friday afternoon and evening.   The system will be brushing the eastern third of the state Saturday morning with some additional scattered showers but should move eastward by afternoon.   Most data has converged on a second fast moving upper system ( the upstream kicker) that will bring another chance for a few showers or storms across the area Sunday.   Once this system exits the eastern third of the state Sunday  we’ll see improving sky conditions and temperatures warming to near 80 by Monday and into the lower 80s Tuesday.   A strong looking system will near the state Tuesday night into Wednesday but the low level moisture may not be available for convective activity.   The winds may still be out of the east or northeast Monday morning before returning out of the south by afternoon.   Tuesday winds may be more from the south to southwest and this would tend to keep significant low level moisture to our east.  This means we’ll keep a low chance for a few showers or storms for next Wednesday but monitor data closely. 

The initial look at data late next week support a significant cool-down, but we’ll not make any big pronouncements due to the inconsistency in the data. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Alan Crone