Alan Crone Weather Blog: Active Pattern Ahead

Monday, March 7th 2016, 4:18 am

The upper air flow will bring two distinct systems near the southern and central plains for the next few days. The first arrives near the area later tonight into Tuesday, and the second arrives Wednesday through the end of the week, and possibly into the weekend.  The result will be increasing rain and storm chances.  

A few strong to severe storms can’t be ruled out but the main threat may eventually be heavy rainfall across part of southeastern or eastern OK.  Highs today will be in the upper 60s or lower 70s along with strong south winds at 20 to 35 mph. 

A dry line will sharpen up across western OK this afternoon. Rich low level moisture is streaming back across the southern plains into the state of Oklahoma this morning.   A few isolated showers will be possible during the day but a layer of warm air aloft will more than likely inhibit thunderstorm activity for most of the day.

As the first disturbance lifts into the central plains later tonight, the dry line will become active with scattered storms developing well ahead of the boundary and moving east to northeast.  Some of these may be strong to severe.   Large hail will be the main threat, but later tonight.  The tornado threat, while non-zero, is currently low. 

Tuesday into Wednesday the second and stronger upper level disturbance will drive down the west coast and begin influencing our weather with increasing thunderstorm chances Tuesday into Wednesday.  

The threat for heavy rainfall will continue, mostly across southern and east central OK but some heavy rainfall threats will be included for the northeastern OK region, including the Tulsa metro. Highs Tuesday will stay in the 60s with south winds shifting to the north late Tuesday night as a surface cold front move southward and a surface area of low pressure deepens across south TX. 

Severe weather threats will remain Tuesday across the southern and east central part of the state until north winds develop as the Texas surface low deepens. The threat for severe weather by Wednesday morning should remain south of the immediate area but heavy rainfall threats will remain.

The data suggest the main upper level low will slowly eject across south TX and migrate northeast into southeastern OK Friday into part of Saturday.   This may bring rain chances back into the area Thursday, Friday, and Saturday before exiting to the east by Saturday morning or midday.  

The pattern will support a few days of pleasant weather next week before another strong system develops near the state by Wednesday of next week, spring break week for the state.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone



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