Fire Danger Concerns in the Days Ahead.

As mentioned in yesterday’s blog, this past climatological winter (Dec-Feb) was the 3rd warmest on record for Tulsa.  Statewide, the numbers have been crunched and according to the good folks at the OK Climate Survey this past winter now stands as the 4th warmest on record with an average temperature nearly 4 degrees above normal.   Any way you look at it, it certainly has not been much of a winter.

After such a warm winter, those storms last night were certainly very Spring-like and may be a harbinger of things to come.  Notice from the rainfall totals there were some winners and some losers in that regard and unfortunately, the locations that needed the rain the most are the locations that pretty well missed out. In either event, fire danger will be a problem again in the days ahead due to gusty winds together with dormant vegetation.

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Speaking of temperatures, notice the 24 hour temperature change as of late this afternoon.  Today’s gusty northerly winds behind last night’s cool front certainly cooled us off considerably from that same time yesterday.  The next map shows the max/min temperatures for today and although cooler than yesterday, those numbers are still above what is considered normal for this time of year.  A max/min of 58/36 is the current normal diurnal range for Tulsa.

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As mentioned, temperatures will continue to be well above the seasonal norms for daytime highs as you can see on our forecast page.  However, fair skies and light winds tonight will allow temperatures to drop to near normal with low-mid 30s expected at most locations.

Gusty southerly winds will quickly return during the day Wednesday together with lots of sunshine pushing our daytime highs into the upper 60s to near 70.  At the same time, relative humidity levels will be dropping below the 30% range during the heat of the day, those winds will be gusting to near 30 mph at times, and that means a high fire danger situation.

Another weak boundary will push across the state by early Thursday morning followed by gusty northerly winds.  There may be a few sprinkles or a light shower or two for the more eastern counties with this system that morning followed by lots of sunshine for the rest of the day.  As a result, temperatures will not cool off much and it will still be warmer than normal and with the gusty winds, another high fire danger.

Southerly winds return for Friday and another weak boundary may impact the wind direction somewhat on Saturday with a more SE or even E wind.  Also, wind speeds will be relatively light for Saturday, but increasing southerly winds will return for Sun through early next week.  By then, more moisture will be available and chances of showers or storms will likely be on the increase.  A system currently well out in the Pacific has the potential to be a potent storm for the Southern Plains, but given its current location there remains considerable uncertainty regarding its ultimate track/intensity.  At any rate, the 7day QPF is picking up on the system with the potential for another round of showers or storms starting on Sunday and continuing into that following week.  Given the time of year and above normal temperatures, cannot rule out the possibility of severe storms. 

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As far as conditions on Grand Lake for the Classic this weekend, it is looking mighty good.  Above normal temperatures, partly cloudy skies, southerly winds and the only mention of rain is during the day Sunday and that may hold off until Monday.  Certainly better than 3 years ago when it was so cold.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot