Alan Crone Weather Blog: Tracking A Tuesday System

Temperatures are now in the 30s near 40 across most of eastern OK.   Highs today will be nearing the upper 50s and lower 60s along with northeast winds at 10 mph. Increasing clouds are likely tonight as a powerful storm system will be nearing the area.  

This will bring some rain back to the region Tuesday. Some locations across far northern OK may remain dry while southern sections will see pockets of moderate rainfall.  

Some snow may mix in with some rain across extreme eastern OK and northwestern Arkansas late Tuesday night into pre-dawn Wednesday.

The upper air flow will quickly bring a strong storm system across the area later this evening into Tuesday. This system is still slightly off-shore of the Pacific coast.  This upper air system will not be modeled correctly for at least another 12 hours. At the surface a strong area of low pressure will develop across part of Texas and will move eastward Tuesday and Tuesday night. By Wednesday morning the deepening and strengthening surface low will be near central Tennessee.  

This system will be a very dynamic storm system that should bring rain back to most, but not all locations across the state. There will remain, even at this late time period in the forecast cycle, some questions regarding the thermal profile of the storm as it moves across the state. Temperatures may drop fast enough Tuesday night to change some of the rain over to snow across part of extreme eastern OK into northwestern Arkansas.  

The data is not conclusive at this point with EURO data much colder faster compared to the GFS output. At this point we’ll keep the mention of any change over confined to these locations of extreme eastern OK into northwestern. 

The exact northern extent of the precipitation is also in question. This pattern and trajectory could easily create a sharp gradient of precipitation with locations near highway 412 being on the extreme northern edge. Some model data has consistently modeled this depiction. Therefore, I’m inclined to keep the 60% chance for the metro this morning with higher probabilities to the south.

Temperatures today will be in the mid or upper 60s along with northeast winds near 10 to 15 mph. Some sunshine will be likely with the cloud mix this morning before increasing clouds this afternoon and evening.

Tuesday expect cloudy and cool conditions with lows in the lower 40s and highs in the mid-40s.Rain will be likely across southern OK with a 60% chance in the Tulsa metro.  A few thunderstorms may be possible across far southern OK but no severe weather will occur.   North winds at 15 to 35 mph will be likely. Late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning some precipitation may change to snow across far east-central OK and northwestern Arkansas.   Wednesday morning lows in the metro will be nearing 35 with highs near 50s. Decreasing clouds are likely Wednesday with sunshine and north winds at 10 to 25 mph. 

Thursday and Friday will support highs in the 50s with mostly sunny sky. Saturday temperatures in the 60s will be likely but another strong cold front will be nearing the state and may move across the area Sunday night or Monday morning with a chance of some precipitation.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV