Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Roller Coaster Temperatures

A dry cold front is moving across the state this morning and will bring north to northeast winds back to the region today.   This means our afternoon highs will be back in the mid-40s along with mostly sunny conditions for most if not all of eastern OK.   A weak wave will slide down the plains Wednesday night, but our next slight chance for showers will develop Thursday night into Friday across eastern OK.   After a mid-week warm-up, much colder air will invade the area Friday night and continue through the weekend into early next week.

The broad cyclonic flow around the Hudson Bay vortex continues to pump cold air across the upper Midwest to part of the Missouri Valley this morning.   A weak front will managed to back-door its way across the eastern third of the state this morning with only a wind shift and a minor cool down in the network.  Much colder air will more than likely remain northeast of the state.   Mid-level ridging will help to bring warmer air out of the Mexican Plateau across the Lone Star State later today and we’ll get a taste of some slightly warmer air Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the lower 50s Wednesday and near 60 Thursday.   

A series of disturbances will rotate out of the Pac northwest with the first arriving Friday into Saturday across the southern and central plains.   Thursday an elongated area of low pressure should form across the eastern third of the Rockies and move eastward into the state Thursday night and Friday morning.   By this time, a rather small area of low pressure should have developed and will be moving eastward across either extreme northern OK or southeastern Kansas by Friday morning.   Thursday night south winds will bring moisture field into eastern OK with spotty showers developing due to the isotropic up-glide.   By Friday morning the deeper moisture will quickly move into Arkansas ending our shower chances.   Highs will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s Friday.   Our chance for showers will be represented by a 20% chance late Thursday night into the first half of Friday.

Friday afternoon or evening, northwest winds will develop as an associated cold front moves across the state bringing colder air back to eastern OK.   A few snow flurries could develop Saturday morning but moisture will be extremely limited.   We anticipate the weekend to remain cold with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s.

Sunday night into Monday the next wave should be nearing the area.   The spread in the model data prevent me from making any other forecast other than a continuation of chilly conditions and a slight chance for showers including the low chance of snow Monday across part of northern OK.   Data will eventually converged on a solution that will lead to higher confidence but for now, we’ll keep only low chances for precipitation Sunday into Monday of next week.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone