I was as surprised as anyone else by the sound of thunder early this morning. As you can see on the statewide rainfall map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, some locations just east of I-35 received a good soaking. That there were showers and some storms was not a surprise, but their location was supposed to be much further west with only a few sprinkles possibly making it as far east as the I-35 corridor; certainly not an inch or two of rainfall E of I-35.
A similar pattern is expected for the next couple of nights with a decent chance of showers and storms over the far western counties of OK, which are expected to fall apart long before they get this far east. Notice the second map, which shows the dew point temperatures and clearly indicates the much drier air that has moved into NE OK. That will provide much more of a limitation in the eastward progression of the showers/storms that form out west and try to penetrate past I-35 for tonight and Friday night.
That drier air will also result in cooler nights and relatively mild, pleasant days as a N or NE wind will prevail right on through the coming weekend.
As you can see on our forecast page, temperatures will be well below normal in the days ahead, with morning lows in the 40s and daytime highs in the 60s or low 70s at best. We will also have fair to partly cloudy skies each day, with the possible exception of Saturday when we may have a little more cloud cover for much of the day.
Also, a somewhat stronger system aloft will try to spread showers from W OK into E OK on Saturday, but it still looks like that activity will have a tough time penetrating very far this direction; at any rate, will carry a very low end chance of rain for that remote possibility.
After the weekend, a return to southerly winds will warm things up going into next week, and that means above normal temperatures by the middle of the week. A stronger cool front then looks to be moving across the state along about Thursday with our next best chance of rain.
However, as you can see on the 7-day QPF map, this next system does not look to be particularly generous with the rainfall for our side of the state. That is unfortunate as a drought has been returning to the state, particularly for the central and SE counties, as you can also see on the most recent drought monitor which was released today.
By the way, again referring to the 7-day QPF map, notice the potential for very heavy rainfall along the U.S. E Coast. That is due to a combination of factors including any possible impacts from hurricane Joaquin. However, the latest and greatest guidance continues to move the storm track further east and out over the open ocean instead of inland, but that is certainly subject to change and all interests along the E Coast are keeping a close eye on Joaquin.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.