Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Cold Front Headed To Oklahoma

Friday, September 18th 2015, 4:09 am
By: Alan Crone

The timing and coverage of precipitation with storms today and along the cold front tonight is the main issue for the first part of the forecast.   The second issue involves the coverage of precip for Sunday.   Both of these systems will offer precipitation chances for some but not all locations across eastern and northeastern OK.   Another summer-like day is expected before fall conditions arrive for the weekend.   We’ll gradually warm back into the lower and mid-80s for the middle of next week.

We may see a few isolated or scattered showers and storms this morning near northern OK.   This is not due to the front.  Some additional showers or storms may attempt to develop at midday to our west and gradually move eastward, but I’ll only keep low probabilities for this scenario.   

WARN Interactive Radar 

The times mentioned for the arrival of the front and thunderstorm activity are approximate. The cold front will be positioned across northwestern OK by 3pm to 5pm and will slowly move southeast into our area by the evening.   The actual boundary may not cross the Tulsa metro until 9pm or so but our window for showers and storms will “open” around the 6pm to 7pm period from OKC to Stillwater to Osage county.    By 8pm to 9pm scattered storms will be possible on a line from OKC to Tulsa to around Pryor.   This area will advance southeast quite rapidly and be nearing the Ardmore to McAlester to Ft Smith line around 3am.   The threat for a few strong to severe storms will remain across northern OK and southern Kansas through the 1am hour with our main issues involving 60 mph wind gusts and some 1 inch hail possibilities for some of the stronger cells.   Once the main upper level forcing begins to eject out of the central plains the threat for severe storms will quickly diminish.   This may happen right after midnight or so across the area.   As the forcing leaves, the coverage of showers and storms along the front will also quickly diminish.   This is why some folks to the south may totally miss out on this system.    I think most of Saturday will be rain-free with morning lows in the lower 60s and highs in the upper 70s north and near 80 along the Red River Valley.   A pleasant northeast wind will bring a taste of fall back to the area.

Saturday evening into Sunday the front will slowly begin lifting northward as another weak disturbance approaches the state.   Rain with a few thunderstorms will develop directly to the north of the boundary.   The latest and greatest data now keep most of this precipitation across southern OK but it could easily migrate northward into the northern third of the state.   We’ll need to lower the chances for Sunday compared to previous forecasts but will keep a decent chance for most locations Sunday through pre-dawn Monday.   Once this wave ejects eastward, our rain chances will end early Monday and a gradual warming trend will remain for the rest of the week as a weak mid-level ridge of high pressure centered to the west will keep the stronger systems away from the area.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone