Summer is back! It technically never went away since the fall season doesn’t officially begin for another week. Nevertheless, we are in that transitional time of year when the hot days become more fleeting and those temperatures frequently take bigger tumbles. We certainly had a nice taste of that cooler weather this past weekend. In the case of this week, however, those temperatures are on the rise. A southerly fetch of wind is drawing in warmer and moist air into the state as temperatures climb to nearly 10° above normal for both lows and highs. This is all in advance of a cold front that will put this summer weather on hold yet again.
First, the heat is nothing new and not nearly as intense as it was for much of July and August. However, we’ve become conditioned to cooler, drier days in the area now and a heat index nearing 100° Thursday or Friday afternoon may take its toll on your body if you’re not careful. The main relief we feel comes in the form of that persistent south wind. Record highs won’t be reached, but the mugginess of the next few days is quite unusually as we head into the second half of September.
By Friday afternoon a cold front will be entering Green Country from the northwest. As it meets the warm, moist air mass, storms will fire and maintain themselves through the evening. A few storms may have severe wind gusts, but this doesn’t appear to be a severe weather outbreak as the bulk of the upper-level energy passes to the north. Torrential rains and frequent lightning will be the main threats before the storms lose steam on their southward journey through the state into early Saturday. The attached map shows a model simulation of the Radar around midnight Friday night.
The weekend will usher in refreshingly cool air. Temperatures won’t likely go above 80° as a north to easterly wind funnels in that more fall-like air. The temperatures take a further tumble on Sunday as another wave of energy in the jet stream sparks widespread rain across the state. The clouds and rain may keep our high temperatures around room temperature. You can give your A/C a break for a few days!
After this rain winds down on Monday, temperatures are likely to be on the rise again as a ridge of high pressure builds back over the southern Plains. This is a more summer-like pattern that is likely maintained until the end of the month. The 8 to 14 day Outlook put out by the Climate Prediction Center likewise shows much of the U.S. in a late season “heat wave” as well. If you’ve got a pool, you can extend that outdoor swimming season a bit longer!