Persistence is the rule for the next few days with warm and muggy conditions likely for the eastern third of the state. Highs today will move back into the lower 90s along with mostly sunny conditions and south winds near 15 mph. September is a big transition month for our weather, but this week we’ll remain above the seasonal average with a summer-like pattern. The normal high today is 90 but by the end of September the normal average high will be 78 and the low is 56.
A mid-level ridge remains near the state and a weak trough is located to the east-southeast of Oklahoma this morning. These features will keep the temperatures warm and humidity values moderate for the rest of the week. Readings this week will continue to be above the mark for the entire state. One or two isolated showers or storms will attempt to form again this afternoon across extreme southeastern OK during the peak heating hours from 3pm to 7pm. Any showers or storms that do form will be highly isolated. Almost the entire area will be dry and we’ll not include any “pops” on the 7 day planner this morning. The ArkLaTex region will have a decent shot of a few isolated showers or storms. This morning, some of the hi-res data support a few showers across the high plains of Texas taking a run at western OK before falling apart. Again, all of this will remain well removed from our neck of the woods.
The Labor Day Holiday weekend continues to look “good” with dry and warm conditions state-wide, including the Tulsa metro region. Lows in the lower to mid-70s will be followed by highs in the lower to mid-90s along with light south winds at 10 mph.
The past few days, extended data has been pointing toward a major pattern change for the northern and Midwestern part of the country. This continues to be in the works, but the southern extent of any big changes continues to be painted with a low confidence, at least through Tuesday. The surface front that was moving into northern Ok a few days ago for the Monday period now stays north until about Tuesday night or Wednesday, but a few storms will still be possible Monday and Tuesday across southern Kansas and extreme northern OK. Temps will continue to be warm, but should drop a few degrees, with some locations in the upper 80s north and lower 90s south Tuesday. The GFS ensembles are continuing to hint at cooler air for the middle to end of next week with 80s for highs, and even some 70s by late next week. Our forecast will have a 87 for Tuesday with the front pushing southward Wednesday with a chance of storms. If all goes as planned, we should have a nice cool-down Thursday and Friday of next week. Stay Tuned!
Thanks for reading the abbreviated version of the Wednesday morning forecast discussion and blog. Have a supper great day!