Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Stretch Of Warm Weather Ahead

Tuesday, September 1st 2015, 3:54 am
By: Alan Crone

Our forecast remains unchanged from yesterday as warm and humid conditions will prevail for the entire week.  Morning lows in the lower 70s near the metro ( and upper 60s in the outlying areas) will be followed with highs in the lower 90s will be likely along with south winds around 10 to 15 mph.   A weak mid-level trough positioned to the southeast of the region will provide a few isolated showers or storms across extreme eastern OK and western Arkansas combined with daytime heating, but most locations will remain dry today and for the remainder of the week.   Low level moisture will slowly increase and heat index values nearing 100 will be possible for the middle to end of the week.  We do anticipate a pattern change that will bring some active weather back to the state along with another decent cool down sometime next week.

This morning the pattern from yesterday remains with a mid-level ridge near and west and the weak trough located to the east-southeast.   These features will keep the temperatures warm and humidity values moderate for the rest of the week.   Last week we experienced highs well below the seasonal average but readings this week will continue to be above the mark for the entire state.    One or two isolated showers or storms will attempt to form again this afternoon along and east of highway 69-75 during the peak heating hours from 3pm to 7pm.   Any showers or storms that do form will be highly isolated.   Almost the entire area will be dry and we’ll not include any “pops” on the 7 day planner this morning.

The data continue to suggest the pattern will change early next week.   A major trough will develop out of northwestern Canada and migrate eastward across the northern high plains while a mid-level trough will form and deepen over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest by early next week.   This should eventually create a northwest flow pattern from the central to southern plains states, including the state of Oklahoma and act to bring a front or two near the region along with cooler air for the middle to end of next week.   Operational data is not nearly as robust this morning compared to yesterday at this hour.   The GFS ensembles, however, continue suggesting that highs next week will drop into the 80s wit morning lows in the 60s by the middle of the week.    More on this pattern change tomorrow.  If you’re attempting to make plans for Labor Day, we’ll have a slight chance for a few showers or storms across northern OK and southern Kanas, but at this point, the probability will remain very low. 

We also continue to watch several items in the Pacific and Atlantic basins this morning, but I'll refrain from posting information at this early hour.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!