Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Warm And Humid

Monday, August 31st 2015, 3:59 am
By: Alan Crone

The weekend was warm and muggy for many locations across eastern OK along with a few isolated showers and storms.   You may have noticed the humidity increased this weekend as south winds returned along with some modest increase in low level moisture fields.   Dew point temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s were common yesterday across the state and will remain in these elevated positions for the week.   This means temperature heat index values will be increasing as the air temperature levels off in the lower to mid-90s for daytime highs.   Morning lows will reside near or slightly above the 68 to 72 range for many locations across eastern OK with the metro readings in the lower 70s. 

Our pattern this week has not changed from last week’s discussion and forecast:  a mid-level ridge of high pressure will be near and west of the area while a mid-level trough will be near or southeast of the state.   The presence of these two features will bring the heat back to the state and may also bring a few isolated showers or storms to extreme southeastern or eastern OK during the late afternoon or early evening periods for the next few days.   But the coverage would be extremely low and the chance would remain near or less than 10% for the next day or so.   We’ll not include a 10% chance on the 7 day planner but there will be this “silent pop” for areas along and east of highway 69.   This morning a weak and small scale circulation is noted across eastern Ok in the vapor imagery.   Hr3 runs (and even some 4K NAM plots) indicate the chance for a few isolated showers or storms later today near this feature.   Again, our 10% pop for eastern OK should cover.  

Data suggest the pattern will change by this weekend and early next week as the ridge flattens and a western U.S. trough begins to influence the southwestern U.S. into the central plains.   While the main trough is expected to be well west of the region, a series of disturbances will rotate around the trough and into the central plains beginning this weekend into early next week.   The westerly air flow appears to slide slightly southward early next week and, combined with the weak disturbances, will help to bring a cold front into northern OK sometime Monday or Tuesday of next week along with slightly higher rain and storm chances.   Until this happens, we’re mostly dealing with a temperature and humidity forecast along with the occasional isolated storm across extreme southeastern or east central Oklahoma.   Data for the following week ( used for trends only) indicate a major pattern change may occur with a northwest flow influencing the state and a deep upper trough positioned over the eastern third of the nation.   This would act to bring cooler air to the region for the 2nd full week of September.   We’ll keep watching these trends and update accordingly.

Erika was ravaged across the mountains of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico this weekend.   While the system weakened below tropical storm status, it remained a big rain maker for the southeastern U.S. where rain continues to fall this morning in some locations.   This weekend also represented the first time in recent history for 3 category 4 hurricanes to be located in the central Pacific basin.   I’ll not dive into all the specifics here, but only Jimena remains this morning, but it’s still a powerful cat 4 storm.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.    I’m glad you stopped by for a visit!

Have a great day!

Alan Crone