We’re watching southeastern Kansas and extreme northeastern OK this morning to see if any showers or storms can develop as forcing extends southward from the central plains and meager moisture attempts to move northward. A number of runs from several models indicate this potential but our chances will also remain around 20% despite the model suggestion of higher chances. I may be punting on 3rd down and increasing precipitation chances this morning if the updrafts can become mature.
Our main focus of the forecast remains on an upper level disturbance located across the inter-mountain region that will eject eastward today and tonight bringing a weak front across the state during the next 48 hours. A few scattered showers or storms will be possible but the lack of significant low level moisture extending into the atmosphere will keep the chances relatively low for most of the area. A few storms are expected but the coverage will be sparse.
Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer than yesterday at this hour, but most locations will start in the 60s and end in the upper 80s or lower 90s along with mostly to partly sunny conditions. Metro readings should be near 91 today along with southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
The mid-level ridge currently positioned across and near the four corners region has positioned a north to northwest flow aloft over most of the state. A surface area of low pressure across the Front Range will lift eastward today allowing a surface boundary to move southeast into far northwestern OK this afternoon and evening. A few scattered showers or storms will be possible near this front later tonight to our west.
Around 2 am to 6 am Friday morning, a few scattered showers or storms will be nearing the western edge of northeastern OK, along the I-35 corridor region of central sections of the state. This activity is expected to weaken as it moves into an area of lower moisture content and less favorable environment for sustainability. Friday afternoon the front is expected to remain northwest of the metro but a few showers or storms will develop along and ahead of the front as daytime highs near 90 contribute to some modest instability. One or two of the storms may become strong to marginally severe with gusty winds and some hail. Later in the evening, around 8pm to 3am Saturday, a few additional showers or storms may develop across east-central or southeastern OK as the front slowly moves southeast. The lack of deeper moisture combined with a cooling surface layer should keep storms well below severe weather categories. Saturday morning from dawn to near 9am, a few additional showers or storms may fester along the front across far eastern OK. This activity is not expected to be significant nor will storms linger throughout the day. Most of Saturday, minus the early morning hours, will be fine.
The front should become diffuse by late in the evening or during the day Sunday. This means temperatures Saturday across northern OK may stay in the upper 80s along with north winds for a few hours while readings return into the lower 90s Sunday as south winds develop during the day. The pattern supports the mid-level ridge expanding slightly to our west, but a mid- level trough may also develop east or southeast of the state. This should create a shear axis next week positioned around central OK that would provide low chances for a few showers or storms. Temperatures will climb to near seasonal levels for most of next week while a few locations to our east or southeast may experience a few showers or storms, but this activity is expected to remain away from eastern OK. Our extended forecast will begin including some low pops for Tuesday and Wednesday.
TS Erika continues to have some dry air and wind shear issues in the projected path but by Saturday night and Sunday will move into a more favorable area for intensification. Interests of the southeastern U.S. will continue to monitor the progress of this developing tropical system.
Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!