Gradually Warming Temperatures

Friday, August 14th 2015, 3:58 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning.   I hope you can enjoy the early morning cool temperatures this morning.   These conditions are soon to be replaced by warmer and more humid weather as we move into the next few days.   Temperatures are expected to slowly rise this weekend and will be above normal early next week.   A storm system may approach the southern and central plains sometime next week, but today's data remains inconsistent with previous suggestions.

The short term will continue to offer a few showers near or west of the I-35 region this morning in a narrow moisture zone that has been present for the entire week.   A disturbance is indicated this morning across part of western Kansas moving south-southeast.  If the showers form again this morning (and they should) this will be the 5th day in a row for our western neighbors may experience a shower or storm through midday.   This chance remains near or less than 30% for areas along and immediately west of the I-35 region. 

Low dew point temperatures combined with clear sky and light winds are allowing morning lows in the lower to mid-60s again this morning.   The readings will move into the upper 80s and lower 90s today along with southeast winds around 10 mph.   A minor wind shift may occur from the northeast across far northeastern OK this afternoon into the evening hours, but most locations will stay with the southeast winds through the next several days.   This will begin the slow process of bringing low level moisture back into the region.   The bulk of the deeper moisture will remain to our south. 

The mid-level ridge of high pressure located to our west will more than likely remain west through the weekend.   A mid-level trough across southeast Texas will be influencing part of north TX and far southeastern OK around Monday or Tuesday with a slight chance for a few showers or storms.   These features will have little impact for northeastern OK.  I don’t’ think I’ll include any pops for the far eastern locations at this point, but we may eventually add a low probability for Tuesday and Wednesday across extreme southeastern OK and east-central sections.  The lack of recent rainfall combined with increasing evapo-transipiration rates will lead to a drying of vegetation across part of eastern OK. 

The previous data suggested a significant system would be nearing the state late next week with rain chances and cooler air.   The last few runs of both GFS and EURO have not been consistent in the data.   The EURO is now suggesting a weak frontal passage Wednesday with a few showers or storms while the GFS is a day or so later.   Regardless, at this point, our forecast will include warming temperatures through at least Wednesday of next week.     Stay tuned for updates!

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day and a nice weekend.

Alan Crone