Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Morning Showers

Wednesday, July 22nd 2015, 4:17 am
By: Alan Crone

We’re tracking additional showers and storms this morning across part of eastern OK.   .   Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible for the next few hours as a weak disturbance moves over the area and a surface boundary begins slowly lifting northeast across part of the area.    This front may stall again later today along the I-44 region providing another chance for a few storms early Thursday morning across southeastern Kansas and northern OK.    Highs today will move back into the upper 80s and lower 90s along with northeast winds shifting to the east to southeast late today at 10 to 15 mph.   Temperatures will continue to climb back into the upper 90s by this weekend with increasing heat index values across the area.   Heat advisories will more than likely be required for the area this weekend.

WARN Interactive Radar

Storms developed late yesterday afternoon and evening to our west and begin moving eastward late last night.   These storms have blossomed overnight and are located mostly across east-central OK.   Some of this activity has brushed northeastern OK.

So far, we’ve not seen a northeastward jog as depicted in the data last night, but we’ll keep a mention in the forecast for a few hours this morning.   A few isolated storms or showers could develop later today across the eastern part of the state.   This chance will also remain low.   The main threat with morning activity will remain pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall resulting in localized flooding issues.   Street level flooding is possible in a few locations.

The boundary is slightly problematic.   It should be lifting northeast this morning, but I think the eastern OK portion of the front will remain stalled for the next few hours.   It may slide northward later today, but may again stall near the I-44 region.   This will play havoc with the temps.   Locations north of the front will remain the mid to upper 80s while locations south could climb into the 90s.

The data suggest the mid-level ridge will attempt to become established over the southern plains this weekend.   GFS data support a small weakness in the northern portion of the ridge.  This would allow a small chance for a few showers or storms Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday along the OK-Kansas state line.

Temperatures Friday through the weekend will climb back into the mid and upper 90s for daytime highs with heat index values from 105 to 110 in some locations Friday and Saturday.   These values may drop slightly Sunday into Monday, but not by much.   Heat advisories may once again be issued for part of the area this weekend.

The data suggest we may see a small weakness in the northern edge of the ridge Sunday and Monday.  This would bring a slight chance of isolated storms near the southern Kansas and possibly far north-central part of the state.   I’ll not add any pops for this update, but will make a few mentions ON-AIR this morning for this small area.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone