Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Heat Advisory In Effect


Wednesday, July 15th 2015, 4:03 am
By: Alan Crone


A residual outflow boundary from yesterday morning’s central Kansas storm complex deposited itself across far northern OK yesterday afternoon but the “cap” kept any storms from forming across far northern OK.    Our storm chances do remain, but they are extremely low for the area and mainly on the “edges” of the mid-level ridge of high pressure.   This ridge has weakened some compared to yesterday and has apparently changed shape and relative location.   This should allow for some slightly drier air to wiggle down across the far northeastern part of the state today and tomorrow.   Dew point temps should drop a degree or two and this will result in lower heat index values later this afternoon and Thursday.   These numbers, while still above 100, should remain around 103 to 108 today.   A heat advisory may be required again today for part of the area.

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Thursday and Friday we may see another low chance for a few showers or storms along the northern edge of the ridge but the chances will remain very low and only for extreme northern OK and southern Kansas.   These low pops are not worthy of the 7 day planner but we’ll make mention here in the blog and used some very specific graphics and language “ on-air” to highlight this extremely low chance for a very small area.

The extended data (mainly a magic Crone blend of the GFS and EURO) support the ridge remaining the dominate feature for the weekend.   But I do think the ridge will contract and expand over the next few days.     Monday and Tuesday the ridge may slide southwest allowing a stout looking disturbance to slide across central Kansas Monday night or Tuesday morning.   A few storms seem likely with this disturbance but they may only reside across the far northern OK and southern KS region.   We’ll introduce a slight pop for early next week.  The addition of some clouds could lower our temperatures during this period.   The EURO suggests some upper 80s and lower 90s early next week.   We’re not ready to dive into the deep end of the pool at this point, but I will begin to trend some numbers down a tad for this period.

Temperatures are now in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the area and will move into the mid to upper 90s today and for the rest of the week.   South winds will prevail around 10 to 15 mph today.   A south to southwesterly wind in the 15 to 25 mph range is likely by Friday into the weekend.

Heat index values today will move to near 105.   The index is projected to reach advisory levels again this weekend.   Despite the advisory no longer being in effect today for most locations, you’re still encouraged to remain aware of the heat.   Take plenty of breaks if you must be outside during the day.   Wear lightly colored and loose fitted clothing.   Check on elderly family members and friends to make sure they have access to cool air.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV