The flooding rainfall potential will continue for the next few hours as a wave moves across the region from the southwest to northeast along the boundary positioned in the same manner. This zone has been the focus of the heaviest precipitation yesterday afternoon and evening, and will continue to be a heavy rainfall area for the next few hours. A surface wave (small area of low pressure) has developed on the boundary as expected and will lift out from northeastern OK into southwestern Missouri during the next few hours. This will take the majority of the rainfall out of the area this morning. Early this morning through the mid-morning period, due to the abundance of moisture in the atmosphere combined with some low-level shear, a few cells may produce strong to near severe wind gusts along with a very low chance of a brief tropical-like tornado. This chance remains low, but not zero. A small area of showers will persist from southeastern OK into far western Arkansas for a few hours this afternoon, but the threat of significant heavy rainfall will end as the wave exits the area.
Additional storms will be possible early Thursday morning across part of northern OK into southern Kansas before the boundary completely clears the region. The front currently positioned from southwestern OK through the northeastern part of the state will lift northward later tonight into Thursday morning as a response to pressure falling to our northwest. As this boundary retreats, it will effectively become a warm front. Relatively warmer air will return from the south to the north early Thursday morning to midday. This process typically results in rain and thunder, and we’ll continue our rain chances for the Wednesday night and Thursday morning period. Sometime early Thursday morning to mid-morning, the precipitation will lift away from the region. Warm air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will overspread the state and precipitation chances will end.
Temperatures from Friday through the weekend are expected to take a big jump back into the lower and mid-90s along with southwest winds from 15 to 25 mph. Plenty of sunshine will help to dry out the recent rainfall, but excessive humidity values and evapo-transpiration rates will create temperature heat index values from 102 to 106 in some locations. Our first heat advisories of the summer season may be issued for part of eastern OK Saturday or Sunday.
A mid-level ridge of high pressure will be the dominate feature across the state from Friday into early next week, but data continue supporting this ridge weakening slightly by the middle of the week. This would tend to lower the highs a few degrees and possibly bring some additional storm chances back to the region Tuesday or Wednesday. We’ll keep the pops off the map at this point.
Please remember as the rainfall moves away from the region this morning that flooding is still likely to occur in some locations. Also river and streams will continue to rise for a few days before falling by Friday into the weekend.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great and safe day.