Alan Crone Weather Blog: Tracking Rain Chances Across NE Oklahoma


Thursday, June 11th 2015, 4:14 am
By: Alan Crone


We're expecting another relatively warm afternoon with highs in the 92 to 96 range today before some changes occur to the pattern allowing a weak front to sag near the area this weekend.   Several upper air disturbances will rotate across or near the region beginning today and continuing through Tuesday that should also bring some precipitation chances into the region.   The exact coverage remains in question but the overall synoptic set-up will support the chances in the forecast.   

WARN Interactive Radar

We hit 98 yesterday afternoon along with heat index values from 99 to 102 across the area.   We think the high will be near 93 to 96 again this afternoon along with high index values around 100 or so.    Wind speeds are expected to be stronger today due to an increasing pressure gradient tightening over the southern and central plains states.   South winds from 15 to 25 mph will be likely across eastern OK with some higher gusts possible near and west of I-35.   A few showers have developed this morning on the tail end of a central Kansas wave that is brushing northern OK.   These areas of showers or sprinkles will move eastward today and may impact part of far northern Ok and southeastern Kansas midday to early afternoon.   I'll probably include a slight mention ( 20% or less) for the tail end of this system today.

Our atmosphere is expected to be very moist Friday into early next week characterized with a tropical-like profile over the state.   We may have some early Friday morning storms along the OK-Kansas state line region that could migrate into the metro or very near.   I'll increase the Friday morning pops slightly for this scenario from highway 412 northward.

As the Friday wave nears from the southwest to northeast near NW OK, pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall producing thunderstorms will develop along a front that will enter southern Kansas and northwestern OK.   This boundary may nudge into north-central OK early Saturday morning for a few hours, but will more than likely stall and move back north by mid-morning.   The higher chances during this period will reside from northwestern OK into the northern part of the state.   The eastward extent of the early Saturday morning rain-shield is not as aggressive in the data this morning compared to yesterday, but we'll keep a decent chance in the metro forecast.  

The next wave will approach Sunday with more scattered showers and storms across part of the state, but the higher chances may again reside across the far northwestern third of the state and extreme southeastern OK.   Our chances will remain Sunday, but would continue to be around 30 to 40%.

The Monday evening and Tuesday disturbance appears to move directly over eastern OK and would support a higher coverage and chance of precipitation than I currently have forecast for this period.    We'll not make any major jumps for Monday and Tuesday but will increase the chances slightly for Tuesday and make adjustments with subsequent forecast cycles.   It's worth noting the EURO is slightly north with the mid-level trough compared to the GFS suggesting an elongated cut-off trough over the state.

The influence of the tropical-like atmosphere and the expected cloud cover will result in morning lows in the lower to mid-70s and daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s for the period of Friday through Tuesday.   Ensemble data support a return of hot and dry conditions for the end of next week.  

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.   Some changes to the specific pop structure and timing is expected regarding the weekend.   Please check back later today and tonight for updates.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV