More Storms This Week

Monday, May 18th 2015, 4:17 am
By: Alan Crone

Another active weather pattern is expected across the southern plains this week into the weekend.  A few isolated showers or storms will be possible today with increasing rain and storms likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across part of the state, including the Tulsa metro.   Another strong looking system will arrive Friday into the weekend.  

A weak boundary is located near the region this morning and will slowly move southward today and tonight.   This boundary combined with daytime heating may be enough to set off a few thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight, but the higher likelihood should remain to the south of the metro.   We'll keep a slight mention in the forecast for this chance, but only a placeholder pop of 10%.

Tuesday we should experience northeast winds and slightly drier air across northern OK for the first half of the day.   But Tuesday afternoon into the night another disturbance will arrive from the west and southwest allowing thunderstorms to develop and move eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.   The surface boundary located to our south will retreat northward as a warm front and will be positioned near northern OK Wednesday morning.   If the moisture return is robust, a few severe storms will be possible late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning along the boundary.   Current indications do not suggest a significant severe weather threat, but we'll need to monitor closely with the boundary near the northern sections of the state.  

I also need to stress the timing of the Tuesday PM and Wednesday AM system may change slightly.   Some data indicates the rain chances will begin in earnest Tuesday afternoon, but we'll continue our mentions for mainly Tuesday night.   This may need to be changed during subsequent forecast cycles.  Check back later this afternoon and tonight for updates.  

Cooler air should push southward Wednesday afternoon late into Thursday with highs Thursday possibly remaining in the upper 60s along with northeast winds around 10 to 15 mph.   We may get a break from the precip Thursday across northern OK.

Friday into the weekend the pattern supports another robust upper level trough advancing near the state in the active southwest flow aloft.   Surface winds will return from the south along with deepening moisture retuning across the southern plains.   A surface low will develop across southeastern Colorado and advance into Kansas next weekend with another dry line extending into far western OK.   Strong to severe thunderstorms will be likely again sometime this weekend at times across the southern and central plains.  We'll start our chances Friday and must continue through the weekend.   This does not mean the weekend will be a wash out, but decent chances will be carried for this period.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog,.

Have a super great day

Alan Crone