So far the month of May is running more than 2” above normal for precipitation and, together with the relatively wet April, has put us more than 1.5” above normal for the year. Quite a contrast to the drought that was so persistent over the past 4-5 years.
Another wet system is moving across the state this evening and through the overnight hours, which will bring the potential for another inch or so of rainfall.
Notice the first map, which shows the rainfall so far today, in which the more SW counties have had another good soaking and our turn will be tonight. As a result, some counties are under a flood watch for the overnight hours as everything is pretty well saturated and whatever else falls will just run off. However, this does not appear to be a severe weather maker. There may be some rumbles of thunder tonight along with the potential for brief periods of heavy rainfall and, therefore, the flood watch that was mentioned.
That system is expected to be lifting out by first thing Thursday morning with a bit of a break during the course of the day, and even some sunshine during the afternoon hours. However, a few spotty showers or storms will remain possible for the late afternoon hours of Thu and again on Friday. Severe storms will be a possibility on Friday, but primarily for the more western counties.
Then, another stronger system will be moving our way for Saturday into the morning hours of Sunday, and that system will pose a greater risk of severe weather along with the potential for locally heavy rainfall once again. Notice the 7-day QPF map which would include what we may receive tonight and what we may receive over the course of the weekend. Obviously, more localized flooding remains a possibility over that time period.
We should get a brief reprieve early next week before another unsettled pattern returns later next week. So, the month of May continues to live up to its climatological record of being our wettest month.
As far as temperatures are concerned, the month, so far, is running about a degree warmer than normal. The normal temperature range at this time of year for Tulsa is 79/59 and gradually rising in the days ahead. As you can see on our forecast page, we should be at or above those numbers for the most part for this forecast cycle. Warmer, more humid conditions will prevail going through the weekend followed by a bit of a break early next week.
The outlook going into that following week will favor near normal temperatures and a signal suggesting another unsettled pattern with respect to showers/storms as you can see on the 8-14 day outlook graphics.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.