Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Rain Chances Increasing

Tuesday, May 5th 2015, 4:15 am
By: Alan Crone

Our active weather pattern will remain for the next few days, including the chance for a few showers or storms nearing the area later this afternoon and tonight.   Some rain and thunder will be likely overnight into early Wednesday morning.   Additional storm chances will remain for the rest of the week, including the weekend.   A few of the storms may become strong to severe, more so into the weekend.

Temperatures this morning remain in the upper 50s and 60s along with gusty south winds and partly cloudy conditions.   The atmosphere remains moist but no showers or storms are located near our immediate area this morning.   Storms remain across the high plains of Texas and southward into the Pecos Valley.

Later today another disturbance will be nearing our area with thunderstorms developing across western OK and will move moving eastward.   A few of these could be severe to our west.   Some of the hi-res data is supporting showers and storms reaching the metro around 5pm to 8pm tonight.  This is a little suspect, but is definitely possible.  I'll be increasing the pops for the evening and also speeding up the arrival times slightly.    The threat for severe weather early Wednesday morning, while not zero, will remain very low.    A few additional showers or storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and early evening with highs expected in the mid-70s, but the higher likelihood for Wednesday activity will remain early in the morning.  

Thursday a few daytime scattered storms will be possible, but the higher chance will hold until late Thursday night and Friday morning when another complex of thunderstorms will be expected to move across the eastern third of the state.   A few of these late Thursday night could be strong to severe.

Friday evening into Saturday morning, yet another disturbance will arrive with additional showers and storms forming across the area.   A few of these could be strong to severe, but pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible during this time period.   

The extended data support a stronger looking mid-level feature nearing the state this weekend.   Storms will be developing Saturday afternoon and evening and then again Sunday.    This weekend may feature the best chance for organized severe weather threats across the area.   At this point, we'll mention both days for a severe weather threat and hopefully be able to narrow down the timing later this week.

Temperatures will remain mild for the entire week with morning lows in the 60s.   Daytime highs will range from the upper 70s and lower 80s today, into the mid-70s Wednesday, and nearing 80 for the rest of the week into the weekend.   Strong south winds are likely to prevail through the week into the weekend at 15 to 30 mph.   A cold front should finally move across the state sometime Sunday evening bringing some dry and stable conditions for a few days early next week.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone