Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Another Active Pattern This Week

Monday, April 20th 2015, 9:03 pm
By: News On 6

Another active pattern will be developing in over the next several days with chances of showers and storms on just about any given day for the rest of the week. A few severe storms will also be possible for different parts of the state on different days so advise keeping a close eye on the weather patterns as they evolve.

After a cool start this morning temperatures rebounded nicely this afternoon, although still well below normal for this time of year as you can see on the statewide max/min temperature map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Our normal diurnal temperature range for the Tulsa area at this time of year is 73/51 by way of comparison.

A series of disturbances aloft will be moving across the state in for the rest of this week along with weak frontal boundaries that will try to move across the state from time to time. None of these look to be nearly as strong as what we experienced over the weekend, but as you can see on the 7 day QPF map, there will still be the potential for an inch or more of rain for portions of the state during that 7 day period.

Our forecast page details the daily expectations, but each of those days will be dependent on subtle shifts in surface boundaries and the timing and strength of the wind pattern aloft. That creates a good deal of uncertainty regarding the chances of showers or storms on any given day as well as any severe potential.

Currently, it would appear that the most likely day for severe storms for this part of the state would be Wednesday, but that is strongly dependent on the position of a weak surface boundary during the late afternoon hours and the amount of heating that can take place as well.

Bottom line is to expect at least a chance of a shower or storm starting Tuesday when the first in a series of disturbances aloft moves across the state. That system will produce more cloud cover in comparison to the sunny skies we enjoyed most of the day today and could also produce a few showers/storms, particularly during the morning into the early afternoon hours.

Then a weak surface boundary, together with some support aloft, will move into the state, stall out and attempt to move back northward during the day; thus the better chances of showers/storms and potential for a few severe storms.

We will also have chances into Thursday and Friday, although right now the weekend is looking a little more promising with respect to having a break in this pattern. But, this is April so things can change in a hurry. Bottom line is the need to keep a close eye on the sky each day this week.

Also, temperatures will be running at or a bit below normal for the most part this week.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot