Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Unsettled Weekend; Storms Likely, Some Severe

Friday, April 17th 2015, 9:02 pm
By: News On 6

Unsettled weather will continue through Sunday followed by a brief break for early next week before another system comes our way by the middle of next week. In other words, fairly typical April weather with a chance of April showers on just about any given day with only a few exceptions. Of course, since this is April, that also means a chance of storms, some potentially severe.

At least this pattern has produced some decent rainfall, particularly for our western neighbors. The first map shows the 24 hour totals as of late this afternoon, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. That rainfall was also associated with some severe storms and a couple of tornadoes for the far western counties late Thursday.

The second map, also courtesy of the OK Mesonet, shows the totals over the course of the last week and, as you can see, there have been some very generous amounts. This is certainly not a drought breaker by any means, but it sure does help.

And it is not over yet as the upper level system responsible for this active weather pattern continues to move slowly on eastward. Most of the focus for showers/storms will also be shifting on eastward as well, which will bring E OK under the gun for better chances Saturday and into the day Sunday.

Along with the increased chance of showers and storms will come the potential for some severe weather, particularly late Saturday and into the night and again for Sunday afternoon. Damaging winds and hail should be the primary threats but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

In fact, a few showers and storms overnight tonight will likely have some leftovers to start the day Saturday. That should be followed by a bit of a break by mid-day and then additional re-development for the late afternoon and evening hours. That will be the most likely time for any storms to become severe.

Sunday should have some leftovers that morning as well, but a cool front will be arriving during the mid-day time frame shifting our winds to a more NW direction. The front and any associated storms will likely be more active later in the day or that night and that would suggest the more eastern counties and into Arkansas would have the greater threat of severe storms by then.

Those NW winds behind the front on Sunday will be up to 20 mph or more, so rather windy. That will also usher in cooler, drier air, so that Monday morning will start off in the 40s followed by a daytime high in the 60s.

After that, a series of weaker systems aloft will be moving across the state during much of next week and could set off scattered showers or storms on just about any given day, as you can see on our forecast page; some of which could also be severe. If the 7 day QPF map verifies, another inch or more of rain certainly appears to be in our future.

Notice also the 8-14 day outlook continues to maintain a signal suggesting temperatures will average below normal during that time frame which will be quite a contrast when you consider that so far the month of April is running right at 5 degrees warmer than normal.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot