The storms that formed last night along the OK-Kansas state line area are out of the region early this morning. We're now preparing for the next wave nearing the area later today with additional storm chances that will offer severe weather probabilities in the form of very large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two. Temperatures today will not be as warm as yesterday, but still should move into the lower to mid-80s with south winds around 15 to 30 mph.
A weak surface boundary is near southern Kansas this morning. A dry-line is expected to sharpen and move into west central OK by midday as a strong upper level jet steak approaches the region. The main upper level trough currently to our west will eject across the central plains Thursday helping to bring a surface cold front across the state by Thursday midday to afternoon. Until these features exit our immediate region, the potential for some severe thunderstorm activity will remain. Projected severe weather parameters combined with the modeled wind profile suggests super-cell thunderstorms will be possible later today. After early Thursday morning, a line of thunderstorm activity will eventually form as the front moves across far eastern and southeastern OK by early afternoon taking the threat of storms out of the region Thursday evening.
The favorable window of opportunity will begin around 2pm today and may continue through the late evening hours. A layer of warm-air aloft ( the cap) is expected to be present across a large portion of the area early today. This will act to initially limit storm potential, but we do anticipate some storms developing due to the approaching trough and jet streak. A few of the Hr3 runs indicate some elevated convection developing during the early portion of the event before updrafts become rooted to the surface. Regardless, the threat for severe weather will remain through afternoon and evening hours with all modes of severe weather possible.
A few left-over thunderstorms will continue overnight into pre-dawn Thursday across part of eastern OK. More than likely, these storms will eventually become “less severe" with time, but may continue to produce some sporadic severe weather reports (hail and wind) into the early pre-dawn Thursday period. The cold front will catch up with the dry-line by mid-day and move to the highway 69 region by 1pm to 3pm Thursday. Additional storms will develop with the peak daytime heating process Thursday afternoon across eastern OK, along and east of highway 69. The upper air flow suggests the storms will coalesce into a linear configuration and quickly move out of the state by evening or sooner. We think this process will occur east of the Tulsa metro.
Friday morning will begin a one day reprieve from the storms with morning lows in the mid-40s and afternoon highs in the upper 60s north and lower 70s south. But most data continue suggesting another upper level disturbance will near the region quickly Saturday afternoon bringing more storm chances back to the region Saturday night into Sunday. A few of these may become severe, but the overall severe weather threat remains unclear at this moment for this period. The active pattern will remain into early next week with additional storm chances.
We do encourage you to remain aware of your weather surroundings today and tonight.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a great day!