As you can see from the max/min temperature map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, we have certainly enjoyed a very spring-like day today. Tuesday promises to be even warmer, but as is often the case in spring time, when temperatures start to heat up so does the prospect for storms.
Our first chance for a few storms will be later tonight along the OK/KS state line, or further northward into KS, where the nocturnal low level jet may be strong enough for a storm or two to develop. If so, they would be very isolated with lightning, wind and possibly some small hail and most likely after midnight.
Then, later Tuesday, a weak boundary will be moving into the state with gusty SW winds for much of the day and daytime temperatures which should make it to near 80. Together with the available low level moisture, that will create an unstable environment but it will also be capped by a warm layer of air aloft.
Also, the SW winds will minimize the convergence along the approaching boundary, so conditions are not particularly favorable. Even so, a few storms may form over the more E or SE counties late in the day or into the night with primarily a wind/hail threat. Areal coverage of these storms should only be on the order of 20 percent or so.
Quite frankly, a greater concern for Tuesday is the gusty SW winds, very warm temperatures and the attendant fire danger that will produce.
Then, there is Wednesday, which is looking more interesting. Clouds will be a wild card regarding how warm we will be that afternoon, but temperatures should make it well into the 70s, and if we have enough sunshine then we will be closer to 80.
A much stronger cold front will be pushing across the state late in the day and reaching the I-44 corridor along about sunset. Gusty southerly winds ahead of this boundary will provide much better convergence along the approaching cold front and a more widespread area of showers and storms is expected to rapidly develop late in the day extending into the night. Some of those will likely be severe with primarily a wind/hail threat.
As you can see from the 1-3 day QPF map, up to an inch of rain may occur by the time we are finished with these systems.
After that, the pattern change alluded to last week will be more evident with much cooler conditions to follow going into the coming weekend. In fact, temperatures will likely be in the 30s Friday morning and could be at or below freezing to start the day Saturday.
In addition, there will be some energy aloft moving across the state at the same time which could wring out a few showers and perhaps even some snowflakes on Friday.
By Sunday afternoon, temperatures will be rebounding nicely and that should continue into Monday, although another weak frontal boundary may bring a slight chance of showers into the area. As you can see on the 8-14 day outlooks, temperatures should continue to rebound going into that following week with temperatures near or perhaps a bit above normal on average and a relatively quiet weather period for that week. Between now and then, though it could be rather interesting.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.