Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Snow, Sleet Back In The Forecast

Tuesday, March 3rd 2015, 4:24 am
By: Alan Crone

A few showers are likely today along with pockets of some early fog and drizzle.     Temperatures will climb into upper 50s with southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph, but the relatively warmer air will be displaced as another strong shallow arctic air-mass moves into the area later tonight into Wednesday.   Temperatures pre-dawn Wednesday could be around 32 but falling into the upper to mid-20s Wednesday afternoon with strong north winds.   As the cold front surges southward, an upper level trough will be hanging back across the southwestern U.S. moving eastward.   Moisture will be quickly drawn northward and will move up and over the shallow cold air at the surface.   This pattern will support wintry precipitation developing over a large portion of the state early Wednesday and not ending until late Wednesday afternoon or early evening as the trough passes the region.   The temperature profile of the column of air directly over your area will determine the exact types of precipitation.    The initial precipitation will more than likely fall as rain or freezing rain before quickly transitioning to sleet across part of northeastern OK.   Data indicates the transition from sleet to snow should also occur during the Wednesday morning to early afternoon hours.   The specific timing of these transitions will have a direct impact on the amounts of wintry weather in your area. Locations eastward, including the Tulsa metro, would be in the running for 2 to 4 inches of wintry precip in the form of sleet transitioning to snow.   The exact snow ratio will more than likely change hour by hour during the event and could support some locally higher totals in a few areas nearing 6 inches.   We're still a day away from this event and forecast amounts may still change.   

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Locations across southeastern OK may experience a longer time of freezing rain before transitioning mainly to sleet before ending as snow.   A general idea supports some significant amounts of snow may develop across extreme eastern OK into western Arkansas in the range of 4 to 7 inches of snow.   This could be around the Grand Lake region eastward into northwestern Arkansas.   

WARN Interactive Radar 

  Watches, warnings, and advisories may be required for portions of the state soon.   Please remember that winter weather forecasts can and do change quickly because of small scale changes in the atmosphere.   Changes to the accumulation and location of the expected precipitation may still occur during the next 12 to 16 hours.     Travel impacts would be expected with our current Wednesday forecast. 

I suppose the best news for a large number of folks will occur late Wednesday night as the main upper level trough clears the region.    This will signal a change in the weather pattern, including a few days of sunshine and warmer temperatures.   Temperatures Thursday morning will start in the upper teens, and possibly a few degrees colder over a deeper snow-pack than anticipated, before moving into the upper 30s Thursday afternoon with sunshine.   

Friday into the weekend supports morning lows in the 20s and 30s followed by daytime highs in the mid to upper 50s across eastern OK.   Some 60s will be located slightly west of the Tulsa metro.   A weak boundary crosses the region Sunday but only a wind shift will be noted in the forecast regarding sensible weather changes.    This weekend also features the “clock change" weekend.   We'll be “springing forward" late Saturday night.   Spring is not too far away!    But we'll first be reminded of winter, soon. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone