Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Much Warmer Through The Weekend

Thursday, February 5th 2015, 8:06 pm
By: News On 6

The first map shows the minimum temperatures early this morning and the second shows the wind chill values at about that same time. Pretty brutal start to the day and, despite lots of sun, temperatures have struggled to warm up so far today.

The third map has the high temperatures so far today; mighty chilly but not for long.

At least Friday morning will get off to a much milder start as a light southerly wind will be the general rule through the overnight hours. Morning lows should be in the upper 20s to around 30 followed by a rapid warm-up after that.

As you look at the 7-day forecast, keep in mind that a normal daytime high at this time of year is around the 51 degree mark; having said that, we should be well into the 60s for Friday and may see 70s over the course of the weekend.

There are some caveats that go along with those numbers though.

Friday should have lots of sunshine all day long, but there remain some concerns about a low level stratus deck to start the day both Saturday and Sunday. If those clouds are more widespread and persistent than currently anticipated, then we will likely stay in the 60s. On the other hand, if they do not form at all or burn off very quickly during the morning hours, then daytime highs could be even warmer than we have on the forecast.

Have obviously trended the forecast towards the warmer side of the solution envelope and, in fact, those numbers are above guidance the way things stand right now. We may even threaten record high temperatures, depending on the wild card of those stratus clouds.

Sunday will also see a weak frontal boundary move through that morning with northerly winds for the rest of the day, but the air behind this is not initially any cooler and given the mild start to the day we are still expecting to make it into the lower 70s.

Monday should be somewhat cooler with northerly winds for much of the day but still much above normal.

Tuesday will see a return to gusty southerly winds and another warm-up in advance of our next stronger cold front that looks to be arriving along about mid-day Wednesday.

After the Spring-like weekend, Thursday and Friday will be back to the real world with much colder conditions and northerly winds. Not much in the way of moisture is currently expected with this system though as the long range guidance only suggests a slight chance of what should be liquid precipitation with the front itself on Wednesday.

The 6-7 day QPF map only suggests some light precipitation by then which certainly looks reasonable and we expect to be dry between now and then.

That also means the main weather concern in the coming days will be an enhanced fire danger situation whenever the wind blows. Right now Friday and Tuesday of next week look to be the worst in that regard, but any wind at all given the warm, dry conditions and dormant vegetation could result in problems.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot