Tracking A Few Systems

Wednesday, December 10th 2014, 4:41 am

By: Alan Crone

Moisture will slowly increase across the region during the next 48 hours in response to a weak upper level system nearing the area.   The result will be a period of drizzle, fog, or a few sprinkles Thursday night into Friday across part of eastern OK.   The coverage and chance will remain low.   A strong system will move across the southern plains Saturday into Sunday resulting in thunderstorms for a large portion of the eastern OK vicinity. No significant cold air is expected with these two systems, and for at least the next 7 days.

The upper air flow continues to be influence by a trough located across the Great Lakes, weak mid-level ridging across the Rockies, and an actively developing southern stream system. There is also a weak disturbance located across west Texas this morning.   This system will stay away from our immediate areas. The first two waves to our north will drop southward atop of the mid-level ridge and around the back of the Eastern U.S. trough bringing lift to the area Thursday and Friday.   Low level moisture is expected to remain shallow but should produce some sprinkles or light precip Thursday into Friday. Precipitation forecast output via the various model suites continue to be very low, and our pops for these time periods will reflect a low probability.   Temperatures will remain near normal with no threat of wintry precip.

The next significant storm system will approach the state Sunday into Monday. A west coast trough will drop down and eventually across the desert southwest developing more of a closed low system Saturday into Sunday. Most model data lift this feature across the state Sunday into Monday providing strong lift across Texas and Oklahoma resulting in thunderstorm chances for central and eastern OK.   Temp profiles ahead of the system will remain near normal.   I don't think enough cold air will be present on the back side of the departing low for any wintry precip development.

A series of southern stream systems will be influencing our weather for the next two weeks.   At this point, most, if not all of the exceptionally cold air will remain north of the state.   We are seeing a sign that some colder air may be possible as Christmas arrives.

Temperatures this afternoon will move into the lower 50s with this morning's lows near 30 for many locations.   South winds return for the next few days with morning lows in the 40s and 50s, and afternoon highs in the 50s for most of the next few days.   The warmer day will be Saturday near 67 and Sunday in the mid-60s.   After today, the majority of the sky cover will result in mostly cloudy conditions until next week.   Goodbye once again to the sunshine and hello to the vitamin D supplements!

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!