Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Tracking Thanksgiving Day Forecast

Wednesday, November 26th 2014, 4:39 am

By: Alan Crone

Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Tracking Thanksgiving Day Forecast

Good morning. A stout upper level clipper is moving across the Missouri Valley this morning and will bring a few clouds to the northern third of the state for the next few hours. There may be a few sprinkles or flurries along the Ok-Kansas state line area for an hour or two early this morning.   A surface cold front will move southward soon bringing northwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range along with decreasing clouds and afternoon highs in the lower to mid-50s. The main forecast thinking for the next few days hasn't changed much. This means pleasant weather for Thanksgiving and Black Friday before a warming trend begins Friday into Saturday.   Our next significant storm system will arrive around this time next week with thunderstorm chances. Before this occurs, a shallow cold front brings much colder air for Monday.

Temps will remain near or slightly below the seasonal average with afternoon highs in the mid-50s. Thanksgiving Day will start in the upper 20s and lower 30s followed by sunshine and highs in the upper 40s or lower 50s with relatively light north winds shifting to the southeast by afternoon.

The upper air flow remains from the northwest to the southeast for the next two days before the flow begins to change this weekend. A west to southwest upper air flow will develop by Sunday into early next week. The first impact of this change will result in warmer air spreading out of the Mexican Plateau region into the southern plains Friday and Saturday. Our temps will start in the mid to upper 30s Friday and finish in the mid to upper 60s along with gusty southwest winds from 15 to 25 mph. Warmer air will be likely Saturday with lows near 40 and the highs nearing 70 to 75 by afternoon along with south winds at 15 to 25 mph.   A stout cold front will slowly move southward Sunday afternoon crossing the northern third of the state after the max high of the mid 60s is reached. This boundary may move southward into north TX before stalling Monday. This would allow Monday to be the coldest day of the next week with lows in the lower 30s and highs around 40 to 44. This front will retreat as a quasi-warm front Tuesday into Wednesday bringing low level moisture into the eastern third of the state ahead of a strong storm system that will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances will continue to increase with this system. The data currently suggest a frontal passage Wednesday afternoon or evening, but this timing will more than likely change between now and next week.

The big east coast system is producing rain and snow this morning along the Eastern Atlantic.   Air travel will be impacted with delays likely later today.   If you have air travel plans today or Thursday, call your airline for the latest flight information.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Alan Crone

KOTV