A Roller Coaster Ride

Wednesday, November 5th 2014, 4:36 am

By: Alan Crone

The storm system that brought the rain and colder air to the region yesterday is now exiting the far southeastern OK region this morning. Clouds will continue for several hours today before clearing from the northwest to southeast this afternoon. We expect light winds and afternoon highs in the lower to mid-60s. The upper air flow will remain from the northwest for the next few days allowing a series of systems and frontal boundaries to brush the state, but the absence of low level moisture will keep the precipitation chances out of the forecast for the short term. I continue to see signs in the mid to long range data of a major cold air intrusion across the Nation next week. Some of this shallow cold air could impact portions of the southern plains, including Oklahoma beginning Tuesday and continuing for several days next week.

Rainfall amounts ranged from the 1 to 2.5 inch range yesterday as the slow moving system brought much needed rainfall to the state. The main trough axis is leaving the central plains this morning and will allow for improving weather later today and tomorrow for much of the state. Dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere should allow for mostly sunny conditions late today with a surface ridge of high pressure nudging into the state. This will impact our surface winds with variable directions and light speeds for the afternoon. Today may be the best weather day of the week despite the morning to midday clouds across the region.

The next fast moving short wave in the upper air flow will bring another wind shift into the state Thursday with a minor cool down. Thursday afternoon highs will top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s with north winds developing in the 10 to 20 mph range by afternoon as the system moves down the plains. No precipitation is expected due to the dry levels of the atmosphere.

Friday morning should start in the lower to mid-30s with light winds and clear sky, but winds will back from the east and southeast during the day as the next upper level system quickly begins dropping down the northwest flow. This system should bring slightly colder air to the state Saturday with morning lows in the 30s and 40s with afternoon highs around the upper 50s. A few clouds will be likely Saturday morning with the advancement of the colder air, but at this point, I don't think any precipitation will be likely. There could be a few showers across extreme southeastern OK or northeast TX.

Our attention will quickly move into early next week with the cold air intrusion a possibility for a large portion of the northern, central, and northeastern part of the country. EURO and GFS data continues to suggest a significant early season intrusion of shallow arctic air. The pattern is similar to the McFarland signature usually found in the late December and early January time frame with cold air intrusions. A short wave trough will move across the southern Prairie Provinces of Canada Sunday into Monday. As this trough slides eastward across the northern third of the U.S., colder air will spill southward behind the southward moving cold front. A strong vortex across the Hudson Bay area will retrograde and then drop southward across the upper Midwest. Arctic air will surge southward. A surface ridge of high pressure will quickly build across the southwestern Canada region and extend southward into the northern high plains and in the lee of the inter-mountain region. The bulk of the colder air will remain to the northeast of the state with our neighbors in the upper Midwest and northeast experiencing very cold air for November standards. The data has been consistently bringing this air mass into the state Tuesday with a second surge Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could lower daytime highs into the upper 40s Tuesday, but even colder Wednesday and Thursday across the northeastern third of the state. Stay tuned.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV