October Warmth Grows More Unusual By the Day

This is the time of year when our average temperature is in fairly rapid decline.  We're losing a couple minutes of sunlight per day and cold air continues to build in our hemisphere.  However, our weather pattern supports a continuation of this (very) late season warmth.  I would call it an Indian Summer, but I think we have to go through some significant cool stretch beforehand to qualify.  Perhaps we can just call this an extension of the summer season!

                Through Wednesday, the only weather hazard will be some locally dense fog early in the morning.  Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a fast-moving storm system will bring clouds and wet weather to our region.  The actual cold front associated with this system washes out before it reaches Green Country so there will be no real interruption in our warm weather pattern.  This round of rain could also be accompanied by a few thunderstorms, but the upper level energy with this system is weak so severe weather is not anticipated.

                The rain and clouds might clear just in time to check out that partial solar eclipse late Thursday afternoon!  Much like two years ago, this eclipse won't (and shouldn't) be easily observed by the naked eye.  About half of the sun will disappear behind the moon here in Oklahoma by about 5:48pm.  It will continue until the sun sets just after 6:30pm.  Locations west of Tulsa will have the best opportunity to check out this celestial phenomenon.

                The October furnace gets set on full blast the following day.  Behind that storm system, warm air surges north in response to an unusually large upper-level ridge in the jet stream.  Temperatures may run 15° or more above normal this weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s.  It'll be close to record territory.  So where's the cold air?  The attached graphic shows a display of surface temperatures over the northern hemisphere.  It's a little hard to resolve, but cold air has spilled into the other side of the northern hemisphere across Siberia and southward from there into Asia.  You may have heard about that terrible blizzard in the Himalayas a few days ago.  That early season system was reinforced by the extra cold air in that part of the world while we bask in the unseasonable warmth.  Eventually that cold air will make its way south of the North Pole on our side and we'll feel a true autumn chill.  There are indications that may occur in the first few days of November.

                Between then and now, we might see a modest cool-down with another shot of storms early next week.  As it's shaping up now though, this month will end being one of the warmest Octobers on record for the Tulsa area.  Keep in mind that by Halloween, our average high is in the upper 60s.  It puts our 80° readings in a highly anomalous category as time goes on.  Despite the warmth and sun, our fall foliage is really starting to show some color.  The warmth may slow the process a bit, but the wheels are in motion for peak colors to appear by early November.  Enjoy the warmth, the fall colors, and the needed rain coming our way!

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