A Look Back at September and 2014 to Date. Storms Likely Thursday.

<p>After another warmer and drier than normal month, where do we stand so far this year.  Also, chance of storms on Thursday.</p>

Tuesday, September 30th 2014, 8:15 pm

By: News On 6

A Look Back at September and 2014 to Date. Storms Likely Thursday.

Notice the max/min temperature map for the state today, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Some locations made it back to the 90 degree mark on this last day of September. Speaking of which, this has been another warmer and drier than normal month which makes 4 of the last 5 months running warmer than normal. Unfortunately, the drier than normal conditions have also been far too prevalent and we are now running more than 11 inches behind on our normal rainfall for the year. That puts this Jan-Sep period as the 6^th driest on record.

These dry conditions have also produced a potential record year for us with respect to tornadoes. So far this year, there have only been 13 confirmed tornadoes across the state. The lowest on record was the 17 tornadoes in 1988. Having said that, October and November and for that matter December can have some significant outbreaks of severe weather so we will have to wait and see if this year breaks the 1988 record or not.

Speaking of severe weather, conditions are coming together for a chance of a few severe storms, particularly during the day Thursday. A cold front is coming our way and will be moving across our part of the state during the afternoon and early evening hours. The timing is certainly right as that would be during the time of maximum heating and therefore having the greatest instability to work with. Right now, it looks like locations east of Hwy 75 would have the greatest likelihood of severe weather with primarily a wind/hail threat.

Before then, a few showers and perhaps a storm or two will be possible across the more northern counties on Wednesday in advance of the cool front. Temperatures will remain much warmer than normal ahead of the front with daytime highs close to 90 on Wednesday after starting off the day in the upper 60s to near 70. By the way, for you bow hunters, a brisk SE wind of 10-15 should start the day with a gusty southerly wind of 10-20 mph or more to end it.

Thursday will have more cloud cover and with a gusty southerly wind shifting to northerly following frontal passage. Temperatures on Thursday should still make it to near 80 after starting off near 70. Storms are likely along and ahead of the cool front, particularly by afternoon as the front pushes through followed by a rapid end to the storms and clearing skies. Notice the 3 day QPF map which suggests at least the possibility of an inch or more for many locations with greater amounts further east.

That will be followed by much cooler conditions for Fri/Sat, although actually just closer to the seasonal norms since we have been so much above normal recently. Daytime highs in the 70s are expected both days with a brisk northerly wind on Thursday and light winds for Saturday. After that, southerly winds kick back in followed by above normal temperatures again going into next week.

Dick Faurot