A Warm And Dry Weekend

Friday, September 26th 2014, 4:38 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning and welcome to the weekend. Our main weather pattern this weekend will remain unchanged from the previous few days. A weak upper air disturbance is located across eastern Kansas and western Missouri, and another upper level low is located to our southwest across part of Texas. Our weather will continue to be warm, mild, and dry with afternoon highs in the mid-80s and morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Storm chances will be increasing next week as the upper air pattern transitions to an active flow across the nation.

This morning our temps remain the upper 50s and lower 60s with high clouds and light southeast winds. The afternoon readings are expected to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday but many locations will top out in the mid-80s with sunshine and high clouds. Friday Night Football games will be played in the 70s across eastern OK along with dry and mild conditions. Some folks will leave the jackets at the house!

The main upper air jet stream of interest (polar flow) will begin migrating southward during the next few days. A powerful upper level trough will develop off the Pac Northwest with several smaller troughs rounding the base of the main trough and ejecting into the plains states. The first one may arrive Monday and Tuesday with some a few thunderstorms across western OK and western Kansas. This lead wave should move northeast Tuesday into Wednesday across the Rockies into the northern plains but may bring a few showers or storms into Eastern OK by Wednesday morning. This chance will remain low.

The main trough in the pattern will begin moving eastward Wednesday with a long wave developing and sliding across the nation Thursday into Friday. This will drive a surface cold front into the state sometime Thursday night or Friday morning. South winds during the next 7 to 10 days will slowly increase the low level moisture across the state. As the boundary encounters the atmosphere thunderstorms are expected to develop. At this point in the forecast it's impossible to forecast the threat of severe weather next week. But the pattern combined with fall climatology would suggest a severe weather threat for the middle to end of the extended forecast. It's worth mentioning the EURO tries to cut off a low over the state while the GFS is more open and progressive. Translation: The confidence is low regarding next Thursday into next weekend.

In summary, we'll continue with the mild and dry conditions for the eastern third of the state today and this weekend. A minor warming trend will remain next week with morning lows in the 60s and daytime highs in the mid-80s.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great weekend!

Alan Crone

KOTV