Pleasant Fall Weather Remains

Tuesday, September 23rd 2014, 4:27 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning. Our forecast is in good shape for the next several days with pleasant fall- like conditions across eastern OK and western Arkansas. A trough of low pressure to our northwest will crank up a few scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next 36 hours but the majority of this activity will remain west or northwest of our area. A batch of scattered showers and storms is ongoing this morning across portions of central Kansas. Our next major system will not arrive until the middle of next week.

The cold front that moved across the area Sunday has led to some beautiful fall weather across the state yesterday and today. Temps this morning will drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s across many locations of eastern OK. Daytime highs will move into the upper 70s to the east of highway 69-75 and some lower 80s across central and western OK. Scattered showers and storms are located across central Kansas this morning with a few spotty showers southward into southern Kansas. A weak system located to the northwest of the state today will bring a few showers and storms into central Kansas and northwestern OK later this evening. A few of these scattered showers and storms may develop or move into the Osage, Pawnee, and Kay county areas overnight into early Wednesday morning, but the chance of showers and storms in the Tulsa metro will remain very low. We'll keep a very slight mention in the forecast for our neighbors to the west of Tulsa for late tonight into Wednesday morning.

The southeast surface winds will return across the state today and through the end of the week allowing slightly better low level moisture to return across the region. Temperatures this morning will start in the 50s with a few upper 40s in the valleys. Afternoon highs will move into the upper 70s and the lower 80s along with mostly sunny conditions and southeast winds around 5 to 12 mph. A few clouds will be likely at times today.

Wednesday and Thursday will feature morning lows near 60 with afternoon highs around 82 to 84 This approaching week will feature some nice fall-like conditions with no significant chance of showers or storms other than the small chances tomorrow morning to the northwest of Tulsa.

We continue to see signs in the extended model data of a pattern change for next week. Significant low level moisture will be returning from the Gulf of Mexico into the southern and central plains states ahead of a storm system approaching the area by the middle of next week. The main upper level flow will reside to the north, but a wave of energy is expected to break off from the main flow and move across the plains states by the middle of next week. This will result in thunderstorm chances for several days next week, including the threat for heavy rainfall. While it's too early to pin point any exact location or threats, the pattern would suggest the potential for some strong to severe storms across the plains states next week. It's worth the mention to remind us of our second severe weather maximum-season. Obviously our main severe weather season occurs during the spring months, but our secondary severe weather season unfolds in fall as the polar jet begins migrating southward. The “clash” of summer vs fall conditions will continue for a while before the colder air eventually wins. But as this process plays out, we'll be having periodic chances for severe weather. So enjoy the great fall conditions this week. But remain aware of the pattern next week.